湖北农业科学
湖北農業科學
호북농업과학
2014年
7期
1712-1716
,共5页
付莲莲%邓群钊%翁异静
付蓮蓮%鄧群釗%翁異靜
부련련%산군쇠%옹이정
农产品价格%农民收入%城镇居民收入%向量自回归模型
農產品價格%農民收入%城鎮居民收入%嚮量自迴歸模型
농산품개격%농민수입%성진거민수입%향량자회귀모형
price of agricultural products%farmers’ income%urban residents’ income%vector autoregressive model
运用向量自回归模型研究了1978~2011年农产品价格和城镇居民收入对农民收入的动态影响。结果表明，农民收入主要受自身上期的影响，农民收入具有自我增进机制。农产品生产价格上涨对农民收入有正向、时滞的影响，农业生产资料价格对农民收入增长具有微弱的负向影响。城镇居民收入对农民收入有较强的长期正向效应，应建立城镇居民收入对农民收入的良性作用机制。
運用嚮量自迴歸模型研究瞭1978~2011年農產品價格和城鎮居民收入對農民收入的動態影響。結果錶明，農民收入主要受自身上期的影響，農民收入具有自我增進機製。農產品生產價格上漲對農民收入有正嚮、時滯的影響，農業生產資料價格對農民收入增長具有微弱的負嚮影響。城鎮居民收入對農民收入有較彊的長期正嚮效應，應建立城鎮居民收入對農民收入的良性作用機製。
운용향량자회귀모형연구료1978~2011년농산품개격화성진거민수입대농민수입적동태영향。결과표명，농민수입주요수자신상기적영향，농민수입구유자아증진궤제。농산품생산개격상창대농민수입유정향、시체적영향，농업생산자료개격대농민수입증장구유미약적부향영향。성진거민수입대농민수입유교강적장기정향효응，응건립성진거민수입대농민수입적량성작용궤제。
The dynamic effects of the prices of agricultural production and urban residents’ income on farmers’ income dur-ing 1978 and 2011 were analyzed with using vector autoregressive model. The results showed that the farmers’ income with self, improving mechanism mainly affected by previous income. The rise of production prices had a delayed and positive ef-fect on farmers’ income. Prices of agricultural means of production had a weak and negative influence on the rural income growth. The increase of urban residents’ income had a strong long-term positive effect on farmers’ income. A benign mecha-nism between them should be established.
