CAJ | 학술논문

风力发电的出力直接取决于风速，因此需要提高风速的预测精度。考虑到风速点预测精度的提高有较难克服的瓶颈，文中提出一种针对风速的区间预测方法，将集对分析原理引入风速的区间预测中，利用风向、温度、气压、湿度等影响因素的训练数据，并考虑风速点预测的结果误差分布及风速变化率的影响，确定未来某时间段内风速的预测值所属的分类集合，以该分类集合的上下限作为风速预测区间的上下限，从而实现了风速的区间预测。以国内某风电场的数据进行训练和预测，验证了基于集对分析理论的风速区间预测方法的有效性，同时所提方法的预测结果可以用于风电场功率预测。
풍력발전적출력직접취결우풍속，인차수요제고풍속적예측정도。고필도풍속점예측정도적제고유교난극복적병경，문중제출일충침대풍속적구간예측방법，장집대분석원리인입풍속적구간예측중，이용풍향、온도、기압、습도등영향인소적훈련수거，병고필풍속점예측적결과오차분포급풍속변화솔적영향，학정미래모시간단내풍속적예측치소속적분류집합，이해분류집합적상하한작위풍속예측구간적상하한，종이실현료풍속적구간예측。이국내모풍전장적수거진행훈련화예측，험증료기우집대분석이론적풍속구간예측방법적유효성，동시소제방법적예측결과가이용우풍전장공솔예측。
Wind farm output power is directly depended on the wind speed,and it is necessary to improve the prediction accuracy of the wind speed.Taking the difficulty of improving the wind speed point forecast accuracy into account,this paper presents a method for wind speed interval prediction based on the set pair analysis theory.This method uses the training data of wind direction,temperature,pressure,humidity,etc.,which are the influential factors of wind speed.On the other hand,by considering the error distribution of the wind speed point forecast and the change rate of wind speed,the classified collection which the predictive value of the wind speed in a certain period in the future belongs to is determined.The upper and lower limits of the classified collection are taken as the upper and lower limits of the wind speed prediction interval,thus the wind speed interval prediction is realized.By using the training and prediction data that come from a wind farm in China,the effectiveness of the wind speed interval prediction based on the set pair analysis theory is verified.In fact,the proposed method can also be used for wind power prediction.