CAJ | 학술논문

风电功率作为电力系统调度运行中不可忽视的随机输入变量，其相关性分析直接影响电力系统的不确定性和运行风险评估。文中从风电功率相关结构的角度出发分析风电功率的相关性，分析了风电功率间的尾部特征，提出利用混合Copula函数建模分析风电功率相关性的方法。该方法依据风电功率测量数据的相关结构，以线性加权的方式构造能够描述不对称尾部特征的混合Copula函数，并利用期望最大化(EM)方法对相关参数进行估计，研究结果表明，混合 Copula函数能够很好地刻画风电功率间的相关结构和尾部特征，同时基于Copula函数的相关性测度理论能够方便地求取反映相关程度的指标。
풍전공솔작위전력계통조도운행중불가홀시적수궤수입변량，기상관성분석직접영향전력계통적불학정성화운행풍험평고。문중종풍전공솔상관결구적각도출발분석풍전공솔적상관성，분석료풍전공솔간적미부특정，제출이용혼합Copula함수건모분석풍전공솔상관성적방법。해방법의거풍전공솔측량수거적상관결구，이선성가권적방식구조능구묘술불대칭미부특정적혼합Copula함수，병이용기망최대화(EM)방법대상관삼수진행고계，연구결과표명，혼합 Copula함수능구흔호지각화풍전공솔간적상관결구화미부특정，동시기우Copula함수적상관성측도이론능구방편지구취반영상관정도적지표。
Wind power is a new stochastic variable in the power system operation and dispatch,the correlation of wind power generation should be quantified to determine the variability of power flows,the system uncertainty and operational risk.This paper analyzes the tail dependency of wind power first,and then improves a hybrid Copula method to model the wind power dependency considering the dependency structure. The method constructs a hybrid Copula which can describe the tail characteristic by linear weight,then uses the expectation maximization(EM)algorithm to evaluate the parameter,the analysis results of two typical wind farms show that hybrid Copula can accurately describe the correlation structure of wind power,and the correlation index and tail correlation index can be easily calculated based on the correlation measure theory of Copula.