CAJ | 학술논문

确保减碳的首要任务是定量测度化石能源消费碳排放的增量影响因素及其大小。为分析北京市1997-2007年的碳排放增量，本文构建了一个扩展的（调入、进口）竞争型经济-能源-碳排放投入产出模型，从整体特征、不同产业、工业行业3个方面，对1997-2007年北京能源消费的碳排放增量进行了结构分解。分析发现：经济规模增长要素（消费、投资、调出和出口等）是拉动碳排放增长的主导因素，能源强度变动效应却是碳减排的决定性因素；在规模扩张因素中，消费和调出超过投资和出口，是碳排放增长的主要贡献者；2002以来新一轮“高碳”特征的工业化导致CO2排量呈急增之势；产业结构调整、三产比重最大使得服务业成为碳排放增长的最大部门，但工业排放的增长却后来居上；碳增排的重点行业是高能耗业，而碳减排的却是能源工业；两时段各效应在不同产业、不同工业行业的影响方向和大小不一。
학보감탄적수요임무시정량측도화석능원소비탄배방적증량영향인소급기대소。위분석북경시1997-2007년적탄배방증량，본문구건료일개확전적（조입、진구）경쟁형경제-능원-탄배방투입산출모형，종정체특정、불동산업、공업행업3개방면，대1997-2007년북경능원소비적탄배방증량진행료결구분해。분석발현：경제규모증장요소（소비、투자、조출화출구등）시랍동탄배방증장적주도인소，능원강도변동효응각시탄감배적결정성인소；재규모확장인소중，소비화조출초과투자화출구，시탄배방증장적주요공헌자；2002이래신일륜“고탄”특정적공업화도치CO2배량정급증지세；산업결구조정、삼산비중최대사득복무업성위탄배방증장적최대부문，단공업배방적증장각후래거상；탄증배적중점행업시고능모업，이탄감배적각시능원공업；량시단각효응재불동산업、불동공업행업적영향방향화대소불일。
The first task in ensuring a reduction in CO2 emissions is to quantitatively measure the factors and their effect size on increasing CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel consumption. An extension of the buying and import-noncompetition economy-energy-CO2 emission input-output model was designed to analyze CO2 emission increases for Beijing from 1997-2007. The increase in CO2 emissions because of energy consumption was broken down into nine kinds of effects including the change in energy consumption intensity and structure, and economic scale expansion. We found that the effect of economic scale expansion such as consumption investment, export and selling were the main factors increasing CO2 emissions. The effect of the change in energy consumption intensity was the dominant factor reducing CO2 emissions. CO2 emissions increased rapidly from 2002. The ifrst increase in carbon emissions was related to the service industry, adjustment in industrial structure and the priority given to tertiary industries. High energy consumption manufacturing was the industrial branch driving CO2 emissions; the main industry driving CO2 emission reductions was the energy industry. The new round of industrialization with ‘high carbon’ features meant that CO2 emissions increased rapidly from 2002-2007. The quantity and direction of the nine focal effects varied across industries and different industrial sectors.