CAJ | 학술논문

以我国固定资产投资额1991-2010年的统计数据作为样本区间，分别通过三种单项预测方法进行预测，建立了基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型，计算出相应的预测值和预测精度。通过建立相应的评价指标体系，预测了未来五年我国固定资产投资额，预测结果与实际较接近，符合我国政策趋势。
이아국고정자산투자액1991-2010년적통계수거작위양본구간，분별통과삼충단항예측방법진행예측，건립료기우IOWA산자적조합예측모형，계산출상응적예측치화예측정도。통과건립상응적평개지표체계，예측료미래오년아국고정자산투자액，예측결과여실제교접근，부합아국정책추세。
The fixed asset investment statistics of China from 1991 to 2010 are used as the sample period. Based on three individual prediction methods, a combination forecasting model based on the IOWA operator is proposed to calculate the prediction and their corre-sponding forecasting precision. What’s more, the corresponding evaluation index system is established to predict the fixed asset invest-ment for the next five years. The predicting results are closer to the actual ones, which are in line with China ’s policy trend.