铜陵学院学报
銅陵學院學報
동릉학원학보
JOURNAL OF TONGLING COLLEGE
2014年
2期
25-28,42
,共5页
IOWA算子%组合预测%指数曲线
IOWA算子%組閤預測%指數麯線
IOWA산자%조합예측%지수곡선
IOWA operator%combination forecasting%exponential curve
以我国固定资产投资额1991-2010年的统计数据作为样本区间,分别通过三种单项预测方法进行预测,建立了基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型,计算出相应的预测值和预测精度。通过建立相应的评价指标体系,预测了未来五年我国固定资产投资额,预测结果与实际较接近,符合我国政策趋势。
以我國固定資產投資額1991-2010年的統計數據作為樣本區間,分彆通過三種單項預測方法進行預測,建立瞭基于IOWA算子的組閤預測模型,計算齣相應的預測值和預測精度。通過建立相應的評價指標體繫,預測瞭未來五年我國固定資產投資額,預測結果與實際較接近,符閤我國政策趨勢。
이아국고정자산투자액1991-2010년적통계수거작위양본구간,분별통과삼충단항예측방법진행예측,건립료기우IOWA산자적조합예측모형,계산출상응적예측치화예측정도。통과건립상응적평개지표체계,예측료미래오년아국고정자산투자액,예측결과여실제교접근,부합아국정책추세。
The fixed asset investment statistics of China from 1991 to 2010 are used as the sample period. Based on three individual prediction methods, a combination forecasting model based on the IOWA operator is proposed to calculate the prediction and their corre-sponding forecasting precision. What’s more, the corresponding evaluation index system is established to predict the fixed asset invest-ment for the next five years. The predicting results are closer to the actual ones, which are in line with China ’s policy trend.