CAJ | 학술논문

为了提高航空器四维轨迹预测的准确性，提出了基于航空器性能数据以及航空器意图的四维航迹预测方法。通过统计分析航空器实际雷达轨迹数据，根据水平轨迹、高度和速度剖面等构建了航空器意图模型。采用航空器意图模型与航空器动力与运动学模型相结合的方法，考虑气象因素，基于性能数据设计了四维航迹预测模型。以国内某机场进场航班ACA025与CES2161为例进行了模拟，将预计到达时刻与实际到达时刻的误差作为评价指标，结果表明：本文提出的算法可以将通过航路点时刻的误差控制在30 s以内。
위료제고항공기사유궤적예측적준학성，제출료기우항공기성능수거이급항공기의도적사유항적예측방법。통과통계분석항공기실제뢰체궤적수거，근거수평궤적、고도화속도부면등구건료항공기의도모형。채용항공기의도모형여항공기동력여운동학모형상결합적방법，고필기상인소，기우성능수거설계료사유항적예측모형。이국내모궤장진장항반ACA025여CES2161위례진행료모의，장예계도체시각여실제도체시각적오차작위평개지표，결과표명：본문제출적산법가이장통과항로점시각적오차공제재30 s이내。
In order to improve the trajectory prediction accuracy,a new four-dimensional aircraft trajectory prediction approach was presented,which was based on aircraft performance data and aircraft intent. Firstly,through statistical analysis of historical radar data about aircraft trajectories,an aircraft intent model was constructed from the perspective of horizontal trajectory,altitude,and velocity profile. Then the four-dimensional trajectory prediction model was built based on the aircraft intent model in combination with aircrafts kinetic and kinematic models,taking into account the aircraft performance data and meteorological data. Finally,taking arrival flights ACA025 and CES2161 to a domestic airport as examples,a simulation was conducted,in which the error between expected and actual time-of-arrival was chosen as the evaluation criteria. The simulation results show that the proposed trajectory prediction approach can control the error between expected and actual time-of-arrival within 30 s with respect to every passing waypoints.