CAJ | 학술논문

为评估限购政策对城市住房市场的调控效应，借助灰色系统理论的灰色关联分析法构建数学模型，以天津市为例，对限购政策实施前后城市住房市场的变动情况进行了比较分析。结果显示，与限购政策实施前相比，天津市的住宅现房销售面积、住宅期房销售面积在时间上均出现了明显的滞后；住宅施工面积在时间上则未明显的变化；住宅投资完成额和住宅新开工面积在时间上则有少许提前。由此可以认为，限购政策的实施引起了住房市场供需双方行动方向的分异，降低了需求者群体的住房需求量，加快了供应者群体的供应速度，增加了市场住房供应量。
위평고한구정책대성시주방시장적조공효응，차조회색계통이론적회색관련분석법구건수학모형，이천진시위례，대한구정책실시전후성시주방시장적변동정황진행료비교분석。결과현시，여한구정책실시전상비，천진시적주택현방소수면적、주택기방소수면적재시간상균출현료명현적체후；주택시공면적재시간상칙미명현적변화；주택투자완성액화주택신개공면적재시간상칙유소허제전。유차가이인위，한구정책적실시인기료주방시장공수쌍방행동방향적분이，강저료수구자군체적주방수구량，가쾌료공응자군체적공응속도，증가료시장주방공응량。
This paper aims to explore into the house purchase quota policy’s regulation effect on housing market in the city.It makes a comparative analysis of the conditions before and after the implementation of house purchase quota policy in the city of Tianjin through constructing a mathematical model by the gray correlation analysis method.The result shows obvious delay as for the time for both the ready residential house sales area and the residential housing under construction, nearly no changes regarding floor space under construction,and a little bit ahead of time in the respect of residential fixed investment and construction starts.Therefore,it is concluded that the house purchase quota policy would restrain the speculative behavior,and cause no intense impact on the housing investment market.