CAJ | 학술논문

本文结合考虑土地利用/覆被变化的流域水文模型（WHMLUCC）和Palmer干旱指数PDSI模拟干旱事件的发展过程，从成因途径提出基于WHMLUCC模型和Palmer干旱指数的非一致性干旱概率计算方法，并以无定河流域为例，推求不同情景变化环境下的干旱概率分布规律，进一步结合干旱等级标准计算不同等级干旱事件发生的概率，为该流域干旱预测和干旱规划提供科学依据。研究结果表明：（1）通过干旱概率计算与分析可知，气候条件对干旱影响较为突出，与此同时，在过去气候条件下土地利用面积的变化对干旱影响明显，而在现状气候条件下土地利用面积的变化对干旱的影响较弱；（2）在无定河流域的5种情景中，过去气候条件下情景2的土地利用情况有利于当地极端干旱形势的缓解，现状气候条件下各个情景的干旱形势较为一致；（3）通过成因分析，无定河流域干旱与气候变化和土地利用状况密不可分。
본문결합고필토지이용/복피변화적류역수문모형（WHMLUCC）화Palmer간한지수PDSI모의간한사건적발전과정，종성인도경제출기우WHMLUCC모형화Palmer간한지수적비일치성간한개솔계산방법，병이무정하류역위례，추구불동정경변화배경하적간한개솔분포규률，진일보결합간한등급표준계산불동등급간한사건발생적개솔，위해류역간한예측화간한규화제공과학의거。연구결과표명：（1）통과간한개솔계산여분석가지，기후조건대간한영향교위돌출，여차동시，재과거기후조건하토지이용면적적변화대간한영향명현，이재현상기후조건하토지이용면적적변화대간한적영향교약；（2）재무정하류역적5충정경중，과거기후조건하정경2적토지이용정황유리우당지겁단간한형세적완해，현상기후조건하각개정경적간한형세교위일치；（3）통과성인분석，무정하류역간한여기후변화화토지이용상황밀불가분。
As a major natural disaster in China, drought is a restricting factor on the social and economic development. In the article, drought development process is simulated based on WHMLUCC model and Palmer drought severity index. A probability calculation method is proposed based on WHMLUCC model by the way of causes to inquire into the drought probability distribution on changing environment, and the drought event probability under different grade (such as non, light, medium, heavy and specially drought) is given, which could provide a scientific basis for drought forecasting and planning in the river basin. The results show that (1) the drought probability distribution shows a severe impact of climatic conditions on drought events, and LUCC has significant effects on drought on past climate condition, and LUCC has weak effects on present climate conditions;(2) comparing 5 scenarios, scenario 2 is beneficial to alleviate extreme drought, and the drought situation is relatively consistent on present climate condition, and (3) through cause analysis, it is known that the agricultural drought is closely related to climate change and the land use and land cover change in the Wuding River basin.