CAJ | 학술논문

　　通过运用灰色理论，建立满足精度要求的GM(1,1)模型，预测冻融环境中PVA- FRCC使用寿命。结果表明： GM(1,1)模型的方差比C<0.35，小误差概率P>0.95，精度良好，可用于PVA- FRCC的寿命预测与分析；掺入PVA纤维可延缓PVA- FRCC相对动弹性模量的下降趋势，PVA纤维掺量为1%的PVA- FRCC相对动弹性模量下降曲线最平缓；在相对气温很低的长春，PVA纤维体积掺量为1%的PVA- FRCC抗冻使用寿命可达143年。
　　통과운용회색이론，건립만족정도요구적GM(1,1)모형，예측동융배경중PVA- FRCC사용수명。결과표명： GM(1,1)모형적방차비C<0.35，소오차개솔P>0.95，정도량호，가용우PVA- FRCC적수명예측여분석；참입PVA섬유가연완PVA- FRCC상대동탄성모량적하강추세，PVA섬유참량위1%적PVA- FRCC상대동탄성모량하강곡선최평완；재상대기온흔저적장춘，PVA섬유체적참량위1%적PVA- FRCC항동사용수명가체143년。
Grey model GM (1,1) was established to predict service life of polyvinyl alcohol fiber reinforced cementi-tious composites (PVA-FRCC) under the condition of freeze-thaw cycle. The research results show that the variance (C) of GM(1,1) is less than 0.35 and the small error possibility (P) is more than 0.95. So precision of GM (1, 1) is excellent and it can be used to predict and analyze the service life of PVA-FRCC. Relative dynamic elastic modulus of PVA-FRCC de-creased slower by adding PVA fiber in it. The degradation curve of relative dynamic elastic modulus is most smooth and the service life is longest when PVA fiber content is 1%, even in Changchun with lower temperature, the service life of PVA-FRCC can reach up to 143 years.