CAJ | 학술논문

国产飞机研制费用建模因样本容量有限而导致了传统多元统计回归模型的适用性问题。应用支持向量机（SVM）理论进行多维空间小样本建模与估算，以国产运输机研制费为例，基于设计专业分解研制费用样本，采用变量投影重要性指标（VIP）筛选自变量，建立研制费用估算模型，并使用交叉检验与误差概率估计验证模型有效性。该模型方法适用于国产飞机研制费用估算，且可用于飞机改型及改装的经济性定量评估，便于项目早期决策使用。
국산비궤연제비용건모인양본용량유한이도치료전통다원통계회귀모형적괄용성문제。응용지지향량궤（SVM）이론진행다유공간소양본건모여고산，이국산운수궤연제비위례，기우설계전업분해연제비용양본，채용변량투영중요성지표（VIP）사선자변량，건립연제비용고산모형，병사용교차검험여오차개솔고계험증모형유효성。해모형방법괄용우국산비궤연제비용고산，차가용우비궤개형급개장적경제성정량평고，편우항목조기결책사용。
Because of the lack of samples of china aircraft in modeling,the traditional multivariate regression aircraft cost estimation model can be only used in restricted area. To solve this problem, Support Vector Machine (SVM)theory is applied to deal with the multidimensional space with small sample modeling and estimation. Based on the cost breakdown structure of the specialties according to the cost sample data,the domestic transporter aircraft R&D cost estimation model is built by the combination of Variable Importance in Projection (VIP) for model independent variable selection , cross-validation ,estimation error probability estimates for checking model validity and SVM theory for modeling .The methods of cost modeling discussed here which can estimate the domestic aircraft R&D cost efficiently and reliably,can be easily used for economy evaluation and decision-making of aircraft retrofit in the early stages.