CAJ | 학술논문

以有限元法分析为基础，结合拉丁超立方抽样和蒙特卡罗方法（LHS - MC），可对不同洪水位下的堤防渗透破坏风险进行分析。在分析中，考虑堤防土体渗透系数的不确定性，将其视为服从正态概率分布的随机变量，计算得到堤防相应的最大水力坡降，并通过统计 N 次计算结果，根据渗透破坏功能函数，计算堤防在相应水位下的破坏概率。首先，采用拉丁超立方抽样方法对渗透系数进行 N 次抽样；然后，对每一次抽样进行一次确定性有限元渗流不同水位条件下的渗透破坏概率计算。结果表明：堤防渗透破坏的概率随着水位的上升而变大，渗透系数的随机性也对堤防渗透破坏影响较大，拉丁超立方抽样和蒙特卡罗方法应用于水工结构破坏风险分析，可有效提高计算效率。
이유한원법분석위기출，결합랍정초립방추양화몽특잡라방법（LHS - MC），가대불동홍수위하적제방삼투파배풍험진행분석。재분석중，고필제방토체삼투계수적불학정성，장기시위복종정태개솔분포적수궤변량，계산득도제방상응적최대수력파강，병통과통계 N 차계산결과，근거삼투파배공능함수，계산제방재상응수위하적파배개솔。수선，채용랍정초립방추양방법대삼투계수진행 N 차추양；연후，대매일차추양진행일차학정성유한원삼류불동수위조건하적삼투파배개솔계산。결과표명：제방삼투파배적개솔수착수위적상승이변대，삼투계수적수궤성야대제방삼투파배영향교대，랍정초립방추양화몽특잡라방법응용우수공결구파배풍험분석，가유효제고계산효솔。
Based on the stochastic finite element method,the probability analysis had been done on the seepage failure of embankments by means of LHS-MC method. Considering the uncertainty of the soil permeability as random variables which obeyed some kinds of probability normal distri-bution,the stochastic seepage of the embankment was analyzed by the suggested method. Firstly,the multiple permeability samples were genera-ted;secondly,the maximum hydraulic gradient for each sample could be gained by the certainty finite element analysis,comparing to the permissi-ble hydraulic gradient and according to the seepage failure function,seepage failure probability of the embankment could be calculated in different conditions. The case study shows that the failure probability increases with the increasing of water level and the randomness of permeability signifi-cantly affects the seepage failure . The results show the effectiveness,practicality and reliability of the suggested method.