CAJ | 학술논문

西部地区是我国天然林资源保护工程的重点建设区域，工程建设与农民收入息息相关。运用2003-2011年西部11个省份的面板数据，采用面板向量自回归和脉冲响应分析研究工程建设对农民收入产生的影响。结果表明：西部地区天保工程建设在短期内对农民收入和城乡收入差距的影响具有一定的波动性，从长期来看，工程建设降低了农民的整体收入，并且拉大了城乡收入之间的差距。因此我国西部地区的天保工程不应继续通过加大资金投入的方式来进行建设，而应在投资建设保持稳定的前提下，通过对现有政策进行改进来提高农民收入。
서부지구시아국천연림자원보호공정적중점건설구역，공정건설여농민수입식식상관。운용2003-2011년서부11개성빈적면판수거，채용면판향량자회귀화맥충향응분석연구공정건설대농민수입산생적영향。결과표명：서부지구천보공정건설재단기내대농민수입화성향수입차거적영향구유일정적파동성，종장기래간，공정건설강저료농민적정체수입，병차랍대료성향수입지간적차거。인차아국서부지구적천보공정불응계속통과가대자금투입적방식래진행건설，이응재투자건설보지은정적전제하，통과대현유정책진행개진래제고농민수입。
The western region is the focus area of Natural Forest Resources Protection Program ,which is closely related to farmers ’ income.This paper analyzed the impact of the program on farmers ’ income through panel vector autoregression and impulse response analysis with panel data collected from the 11 western prov-inces from 2003 to 2011 .The results show that ,the project has a fluctuated impact on farmers ’ income and ur-ban-rural income gap in the short term while it reduces the farmers ’ income and widens income gap between urban and rural areas in the long term .Therefore ,this paper holds that instead of relying on increasing capital investment ,the Natural Forest Protection Program in western China should aim to increase farmers ’ income by improving policies on the basis of stable investment .