CAJ | 학술논문

为较好的控制和预测石油化工过程中油品掺混后的黏度，获得对于不同工艺情形的精度较高的掺混黏度预测模型，以黏度比为工况划分标准，相对误差的绝对值及工程允许误差为评价准则，评价了8种二元油品掺混黏度的预测模型。得到了各个模型在全黏度比1～106内的黏度预测特性。计算分析了各个模型的预测精度。按黏度比，对掺混黏度预测做了模型的优选。结果表明，Arrhenius、Bingham、Kendall等基本模型的预测结果波动及误差较大，不推荐使用，黏度比在1～103时优选Chevron模型，黏度比在104～105时优选Cragoe模型，而黏度比在105～106时各模型都超出允许范围，且波动及偏差较大，预测效果不好，亟待开发出一种适用模型。
위교호적공제화예측석유화공과정중유품참혼후적점도，획득대우불동공예정형적정도교고적참혼점도예측모형，이점도비위공황화분표준，상대오차적절대치급공정윤허오차위평개준칙，평개료8충이원유품참혼점도적예측모형。득도료각개모형재전점도비1～106내적점도예측특성。계산분석료각개모형적예측정도。안점도비，대참혼점도예측주료모형적우선。결과표명，Arrhenius、Bingham、Kendall등기본모형적예측결과파동급오차교대，불추천사용，점도비재1～103시우선Chevron모형，점도비재104～105시우선Cragoe모형，이점도비재105～106시각모형도초출윤허범위，차파동급편차교대，예측효과불호，극대개발출일충괄용모형。
In order to acquire good viscosity prediction model to satisfy and control processes in petroleum and chemical industry ,existing models were evaluated by absolute relative error at various viscosity ratios .Eight models were selected to be evaluated in this way .Each model’s prediction characteristics and accuracy were compared and recommendation was made according to different viscosity ratio .The result shows that Arrhenius ,Bingham ,Kendall model have a bad performance when applied to predict blend viscosity which is not recommended to use .Chevron model is recommended to use when viscosity ratio between 1 and 103 .Cragoe model is better than others when viscosity ratio between 103 and 105 .Whereas ,no model has good prediction performance when viscosity ratio between 105 and 106 .Thus ,a new model is urgently needed to be developed .