CAJ | 학술논문

2013年6月份以来，我国CPI呈现出缓慢上升的趋势，9月份CPI已达到3.1%，PPI也呈现出逐渐回升的态势。构建的物价合成指数和扩散指数显示，物价一致合成指数的谷底在2012年8月已经显现，其后震荡回升，但回升过程较为缓慢，先行合成指数的谷底出现在2012年6月，至今已连续上升20个月。物价先行合成指数相对于物价一致合成指数的峰平均先行期为8个月。预计未来我国物价水平仍将处于缓慢回升的过程，2013年CPI上涨2.7%，2014年为3.5%，PPI在2013年下降1.6%，2014年下降0.5%
2013년6월빈이래，아국CPI정현출완만상승적추세，9월빈CPI이체도3.1%，PPI야정현출축점회승적태세。구건적물개합성지수화확산지수현시，물개일치합성지수적곡저재2012년8월이경현현，기후진탕회승，단회승과정교위완만，선행합성지수적곡저출현재2012년6월，지금이련속상승20개월。물개선행합성지수상대우물개일치합성지수적봉평균선행기위8개월。예계미래아국물개수평잉장처우완만회승적과정，2013년CPI상창2.7%，2014년위3.5%，PPI재2013년하강1.6%，2014년하강0.5%
CPI is in the trend of slow rising since June of 2013. CPI is 3.1%in September. PPI is also in the slow rising. The price composite t and diffusion indices indicate:the price coincident composite index’s bottom appears in A ugust of 2012 and ascends slowly , which is a slow process;leading composite index’s climax appears in June of 2012 and has been in a 20-month-rising-process. The price’s leading composite index is leading coincident composite index by six months. The future price will be in a slow rising process. CPI in 2013 and 2014 will be 2.7%and 3.5%. PPI in 2013 and 2014 will be-1.6%and 1.5%.