CAJ | 학술논문

建立了交通定位与导航精密电离层延迟改正模型，基于全球电离层图（ GIM），研究了区域电离层总电子含量（ TEC）建模与预报的方法．介绍了高阶累积量的概念，利用高阶累积量具有抑制高斯加性噪声的特点，研究了基于高阶累积量的非平稳季节性时间序列TEC的建模方法和原理．对季节性时间序列周期采用快速傅里叶变换确定，以自回归AR模型对差分之后的数据建模，借助Matlab的高阶统计工具箱实现模型辨识、参数估计．利用IGS提供的2011年6月东经125°，纬度为0°，45°，87.5°具有代表性的区域电离层TEC数据进行建模及预报．结果表明：对一周时间以内的不同区域电离层格网点TEC预报准确率分别达到85.9％，85.1％和89.4％．模型预报精度明显优于Klobuchar模型．
건립료교통정위여도항정밀전리층연지개정모형，기우전구전리층도（ GIM），연구료구역전리층총전자함량（ TEC）건모여예보적방법．개소료고계루적량적개념，이용고계루적량구유억제고사가성조성적특점，연구료기우고계루적량적비평은계절성시간서렬TEC적건모방법화원리．대계절성시간서렬주기채용쾌속부리협변환학정，이자회귀AR모형대차분지후적수거건모，차조Matlab적고계통계공구상실현모형변식、삼수고계．이용IGS제공적2011년6월동경125°，위도위0°，45°，87.5°구유대표성적구역전리층TEC수거진행건모급예보．결과표명：대일주시간이내적불동구역전리층격망점TEC예보준학솔분별체도85.9％，85.1％화89.4％．모형예보정도명현우우Klobuchar모형．
The model of ionospheric delay correction for traffic positioning and navigation is estab-lished, and the methods of modeling and prediction for ionospheric total electron content ( TEC) are studied based on global ionospheric map ( IGM) .The concept of high-order cumulant is introduced, and using its characteristic in removing additive white Gaussian noise, the modeling method and principle of nonstationary seasonal time series are studied.The period of seasonal time series is deter-mined by fast Fourier transform.The orders and parameters of the auto-regressive ( AR) model are identified and estimated by higher-order statistics toolbox in Matlab.The TEC for ionospheric grid points at eastern longitude 125°and northern latitude 0°, 45°and 87.5°in June 2011 are modeled and predicted.Results show that the accurate prediction rate of TEC is up to 85.9%, 85.1% and 89. 4%, respectively, within one week period.The performance of the model is better than that of the Klobuchar model.