CAJ | 학술논문

采用日本气象厅东京台风中心最佳台风路径数据集1977-2011年共35年的资料对西北太平洋热带气旋的发源情况和突变进行了研究分析。结果表明：（1）热带气旋发源地主要集中在两个地方，一个是菲律宾以东海域125-134oE、11o-21oN范围内，另一个是南中国海北部海域111o-119oE、14o-21oN范围内；（2）热带气旋的等级越高，其生成的经度越大，纬度越低；（3）热带气旋生成最多的月份是8月，热带风暴、强热带风暴和台风均以8月份最多，而强台风生成最多的月份是9月，超强台风生成最多的月份则是10月；（4）热带气旋的生命长度、累积气旋能量和功耗指数均与其生成经度成正比，密度峰值均在马绍尔群岛170oE附近；（5）通过对时间序列的热带气旋个数、生命长度、累积气旋能量和功耗指数进行滑动t检验，发现在1995年和1998年均存在突变，从1995年至1998年为热带气旋趋势突变的时间区间。
채용일본기상청동경태풍중심최가태풍로경수거집1977-2011년공35년적자료대서북태평양열대기선적발원정황화돌변진행료연구분석。결과표명：（1）열대기선발원지주요집중재량개지방，일개시비률빈이동해역125-134oE、11o-21oN범위내，령일개시남중국해북부해역111o-119oE、14o-21oN범위내；（2）열대기선적등급월고，기생성적경도월대，위도월저；（3）열대기선생성최다적월빈시8월，열대풍폭、강열대풍폭화태풍균이8월빈최다，이강태풍생성최다적월빈시9월，초강태풍생성최다적월빈칙시10월；（4）열대기선적생명장도、루적기선능량화공모지수균여기생성경도성정비，밀도봉치균재마소이군도170oE부근；（5）통과대시간서렬적열대기선개수、생명장도、루적기선능량화공모지수진행활동t검험，발현재1995년화1998년균존재돌변，종1995년지1998년위열대기선추세돌변적시간구간。
The Best Track Data of the Japan Meteorological Agency RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center from 1977 to 2011(35 years in total)were used to investigate the origination and abrupt change of tropical cyclones over the Northwest Pacific. The result showed that(1)Tropical cyclones mainly had two birthplaces. One was the area east to the Philippines in the range of 125o-134oE,11o-21oN;the other one was the northern part of the South China Sea in the range of 111o-119oE,14o-21oN.(2)Higher the level of the tropical cyclone was, larger the originated longitude was and lower the originated latitude was.(3)August was the most frequent month of generatting tropical cyclones, which was the same for tropical storms, severe tropical storms and typhoons while September for severe typhoons and October for super typhoons. (4) The duration,accumulated cyclone energy and power dissipation index of tropical cyclones were all proportional to the generating longitude, and density peaks were all near 170oE in the Marshall Islands.(5)We found that there were abrupt changes within 1995 and 1998 by sliding t-test of the numbers of tropical cyclones, duration, accumulated cyclone energy and power dissipation index,which also proved the existence of the abrupt change interval from 1995 to 1998.