CAJ | 학술논문

选取南疆地区18个代表站点1961-2011年气温与降水量原始数据,用百分位阈值法分析了近51年南疆地区极高、低温和极端降水量变化趋势及其对农业生产的影响。结果表明,南疆地区近51年极高、低温和极端降雨量均呈上升趋势,增幅分别为1.7℃、4.6℃和3.7 mm,极高温增幅显著低于极低温增幅,所以温度年较差呈降低趋势(-2.8℃∕51年)。南疆地区极高温发生天数增加幅度为0.8 d∕51年；而极低温发生天数减少幅度为2.0 d∕51年；极端降水天数增加幅度为3.8 d∕51年。极端气候对南疆地区农业生产存在双重影响。极高温和极高温天数的升高导致农作物遭遇热害,生育期缩短,加剧南疆地区干旱情况；极低温的升高和极低温天数的减少有利于农作物顺利过冬和种植界限的扩展,但也会造成干旱、盐渍化的加剧及病虫草害的发生；极端降雨量和降雨天数的提高有利于缓解干旱,但农作物花期和成熟期降雨会导致坐果率和果实品质的下降。
선취남강지구18개대표참점1961-2011년기온여강수량원시수거,용백분위역치법분석료근51년남강지구겁고、저온화겁단강수량변화추세급기대농업생산적영향。결과표명,남강지구근51년겁고、저온화겁단강우량균정상승추세,증폭분별위1.7℃、4.6℃화3.7 mm,겁고온증폭현저저우겁저온증폭,소이온도년교차정강저추세(-2.8℃∕51년)。남강지구겁고온발생천수증가폭도위0.8 d∕51년；이겁저온발생천수감소폭도위2.0 d∕51년；겁단강수천수증가폭도위3.8 d∕51년。겁단기후대남강지구농업생산존재쌍중영향。겁고온화겁고온천수적승고도치농작물조우열해,생육기축단,가극남강지구간한정황；겁저온적승고화겁저온천수적감소유리우농작물순리과동화충식계한적확전,단야회조성간한、염지화적가극급병충초해적발생；겁단강우량화강우천수적제고유리우완해간한,단농작물화기화성숙기강우회도치좌과솔화과실품질적하강。
The changes of extreme temperature and extreme precipitation were analyzed based on the percentile threshold method from the recorded daily data of temperature and precipitation at 18 typical stations in the Southern Xinjiang from 1961-2011. Effects of extreme climate change on the agriculture production were studied. In the period of 51 years, the extreme high temperature, low temperature and precipitation was increased 1.7 ℃, 4.6 ℃ and 3.7 mm, respectively. The annual temperature difference was increased -2.8℃∕51 years because absolute increase of extreme low temperature was higher than that of the extreme high temperature. In 51 years, the days of extreme high temperature increased 0.8 d, while the days of extreme low temperature were decreased 2.0 d and the days of extreme precipitation were increased 3.8 d. The occurrence of extreme climate had both advantages and disadvantages on the agriculture production in southern Xinjiang. The increase of extreme high temperature and the days of extreme high temperature caused hot damage on crops and fruits, by shorting growth stage and intensifying drought. The increase of extreme low temperature and the decrease of the days of extreme low temperature reduced freeze injury on crops and fruits by benefitting winter and expanding the crop and fruit boundaries to the high latitude. However, the increase of extreme low temperature and the decrease of the days of extreme low temperature would also increase the disease, insect pest and weeds in the next growth season and intensify the drought and salinization. The increase of extreme precipitation and days of extreme precipitation would ease the drought in southern Xinjiang and promote the nutrition uptake by crops and fruits, while the rainfall at flowering stage or near maturity would reduce fruit setting rate and the quality.