指挥控制与仿真
指揮控製與倣真
지휘공제여방진
COMMAND CONTROL & SIMULATION
2014年
3期
127-132
,共6页
陈俊%朱江%闻传花%周昊
陳俊%硃江%聞傳花%週昊
진준%주강%문전화%주호
弹药保障%影响因素%结构方程模型%系统动力学
彈藥保障%影響因素%結構方程模型%繫統動力學
탄약보장%영향인소%결구방정모형%계통동역학
ammunition support%influencing factor%ISM%SD
决策人员长期受到“弹药迷雾”的困扰,针对弹药保障中需求预计涉及多因素、彼此交错的复杂系统问题,基于系统理论,提出了一种融合解释结构模型( ISM)和系统动力学( SD)的弹药消耗预测修正方法。在联合作战背景下对炮兵群弹药消耗问题进行研究,使用解释结构模型研究弹药系统,对弹药保障需求影响因素的相互关系进行了科学的分析和评价,分析了影响弹药保障需求的因素,进而运用系统动力学研究可控制条件下的预测问题。从实验数据分析兵力比对弹药消耗的影响规律,得到有用的结论,并结合战例检验,证明了方法有效,修正了基于任务量公式计算方法的不足,提高了预测的精度。
決策人員長期受到“彈藥迷霧”的睏擾,針對彈藥保障中需求預計涉及多因素、彼此交錯的複雜繫統問題,基于繫統理論,提齣瞭一種融閤解釋結構模型( ISM)和繫統動力學( SD)的彈藥消耗預測脩正方法。在聯閤作戰揹景下對砲兵群彈藥消耗問題進行研究,使用解釋結構模型研究彈藥繫統,對彈藥保障需求影響因素的相互關繫進行瞭科學的分析和評價,分析瞭影響彈藥保障需求的因素,進而運用繫統動力學研究可控製條件下的預測問題。從實驗數據分析兵力比對彈藥消耗的影響規律,得到有用的結論,併結閤戰例檢驗,證明瞭方法有效,脩正瞭基于任務量公式計算方法的不足,提高瞭預測的精度。
결책인원장기수도“탄약미무”적곤우,침대탄약보장중수구예계섭급다인소、피차교착적복잡계통문제,기우계통이론,제출료일충융합해석결구모형( ISM)화계통동역학( SD)적탄약소모예측수정방법。재연합작전배경하대포병군탄약소모문제진행연구,사용해석결구모형연구탄약계통,대탄약보장수구영향인소적상호관계진행료과학적분석화평개,분석료영향탄약보장수구적인소,진이운용계통동역학연구가공제조건하적예측문제。종실험수거분석병력비대탄약소모적영향규률,득도유용적결론,병결합전례검험,증명료방법유효,수정료기우임무량공식계산방법적불족,제고료예측적정도。
Ammunition support demand prediction is a complex problem which involved all kinds of intertwined factors. Based on system theory and its derived methods such as ISM(Interpretative Structure Method), SD(System Dynamic), a gun-ammunition-consumption-prediction-correction-method is proposed in this paper. Under the circumstance for predicting the undermanned ammunition consumption of joint war, the ammunition system is analyzed by ISM for constructing the struc-ture of the factors and its relations which affects ammunition support demand systematically. and then by SD,prediction prob-lem under controllability condition is discussed. After analyzing experiment data, some useful conclusion can be got. As a conclusion, this method is validated by a history example, and the results shows the accuracy of prediction will be enhanced by this method, disadvantage of the Task Quantum method will be solved either. It is a new way of thinking about ammunition prediction.