CAJ | 학술논문

龙岩地处闽西，是典型的红壤丘陵区，其农田灌溉用水量占用水总量的比重较大，高达60．6％，科学合理地预测未来农田灌溉的需水量，对水资源的合理开发与管理尤为重要。本文在论述了灰色预测模型在农田灌溉需水量预测中的原理、方法与步骤的基础上，利用灰色预测GM （1，1）模型，依据龙岩市2001～2011年农田灌溉用水资料对实际农田灌溉用水量进行了模拟分析，经检验模型精度达到98．45％，准确度高；并用该模型对龙岩市2012～2020年农田灌溉需水量进行了预测。预测结果表明，该模型用于农田灌溉需水量预测，符合其灰色特性，可检验，适用性好，可为龙岩市水资源规划与管理提供必要的参考。
룡암지처민서，시전형적홍양구릉구，기농전관개용수량점용수총량적비중교대，고체60．6％，과학합리지예측미래농전관개적수수량，대수자원적합리개발여관리우위중요。본문재논술료회색예측모형재농전관개수수량예측중적원리、방법여보취적기출상，이용회색예측GM （1，1）모형，의거룡암시2001～2011년농전관개용수자료대실제농전관개용수량진행료모의분석，경검험모형정도체도98．45％，준학도고；병용해모형대룡암시2012～2020년농전관개수수량진행료예측。예측결과표명，해모형용우농전관개수수량예측，부합기회색특성，가검험，괄용성호，가위룡암시수자원규화여관리제공필요적삼고。
Located in the west part of Fujian province ,LongyanMunicipality is a typical red soil hilly region , with higher ratio of farmland irrigation requirement in the total water requirement , reaching 60.6%.In order to the reasona-ble development and management of water resources , it is particularly important to forecast the irrigation requirement in the future scientifically .In accordance with the illustration of the principle ,method and process of grey prediction mod-el in the irrigation requirement prediction , by using the grey prediction GM (1, 1) model, the simulation analysis was conducted on the actual farmland irrigation amount based on the farmland irrigation water use data in 2001~2011 in LongyanMunicipality .Upon the testing , the accuracy of the model reaches to 98 .45%, the accuracy is high .The mod-el is also used in the prediction of farmland irrigation requirement during 2012~2020 in Longyan Municipality .The forecasting results for the farmland irrigation requirement by this model showed that the model conforms to the gray characteristic that can be examined with good suitability .Therefore, the model may provide the essential references for the planning and management of water resources of LongyanMunicipality .