CAJ | 학술논문

文章应用多循环 Hubbert模型对全球石油峰值进行预测，并对比单循环 Hubbert模型预测结果，以及大量作者及机构对石油峰值预测研究，证实全球的石油峰值将推迟至2037年左右发生，峰值产量也将超过42Gb（109桶）。与单循环Hubbert模型相比，多循环 Hubbert产量曲线峰值之后的产量递减率高于峰值前产量增长率，更符合历史产量数据的波动，也一定程度上克服了其夸大未来峰值产量的缺陷，因此在全球石油峰值的预测中更具价值。
문장응용다순배 Hubbert모형대전구석유봉치진행예측，병대비단순배 Hubbert모형예측결과，이급대량작자급궤구대석유봉치예측연구，증실전구적석유봉치장추지지2037년좌우발생，봉치산량야장초과42Gb（109통）。여단순배Hubbert모형상비，다순배 Hubbert산량곡선봉치지후적산량체감솔고우봉치전산량증장솔，경부합역사산량수거적파동，야일정정도상극복료기과대미래봉치산량적결함，인차재전구석유봉치적예측중경구개치。
This paper applies multi-cycle Hubbert model to estimate global peak oil production .By comparing the single-cycle Hubbert prediction results ,as well as a large number of authors and institutions estimate ,we confirm the global oil peak time will be delayed around 2037 ,and peak production will be more than 42Gb .Compared with the single-cycle Hubbert model ,the decline rate of post peak time in accordance with multi-cycle Hubbert model is more sharply than the growth rate before the peak ,in line with historical oil production data fluctuations ,but also to a certain extent overcome exaggerated future peak production ,so multi-cycle Hubbert model is more valuable than single-cycle model .