CAJ | 학술논문

以宜宾气象观测台站1951-2010年的气温观测数据为基础,利用线性趋势分析、Morlet小波分析和 R/S分析等方法,揭示近60年来宜宾市年平均气温变化趋势、年平均气温时间序列的小波变化特征及气温变化在不同时期的震荡幅度,并利用 H 指数对未来气温变化进行预测.结果表明：近60年来,宜宾市年平均气温升高的趋势较为明显,且存在多时间尺度的周期变化特征,出现明显的冷暖交替现象,在交替变化中有3个明显的时间尺度特征,分别是5~11a、20~31a和38~60a左右；气温的 Hurst指数为0.3057,说明宜宾市年平均气温具有较强的反持续性,未来气温可能会呈现下降趋势.
이의빈기상관측태참1951-2010년적기온관측수거위기출,이용선성추세분석、Morlet소파분석화 R/S분석등방법,게시근60년래의빈시년평균기온변화추세、년평균기온시간서렬적소파변화특정급기온변화재불동시기적진탕폭도,병이용 H 지수대미래기온변화진행예측.결과표명：근60년래,의빈시년평균기온승고적추세교위명현,차존재다시간척도적주기변화특정,출현명현적랭난교체현상,재교체변화중유3개명현적시간척도특정,분별시5~11a、20~31a화38~60a좌우；기온적 Hurst지수위0.3057,설명의빈시년평균기온구유교강적반지속성,미래기온가능회정현하강추세.
The thesis is based on the data which the Meteorological Observation Stations of Yibin city had observed from 1951 to 2010,and then,the methods of linear analysis,Morlet Wavelet analysis,R/S anal-ysis,and any other methods of analysis are used to reveal the annual temperature trend of Yibin City in the past 60 years,the characteristics of Wavelet change about the time sequence of annual temperature and the concussion rate of temperature change during different periods.The results show that in recent 60 years,it is more obvious that the average temperature of Yibin City rises,existing the cycle charactristics of much time scale ,and significant changes on the phenomenon of cold and warm altenating,and there being three characteristics on time scale:5~11a,20~31a and about 38~60a.It is predicated that the situation of the temperature rise will have mutations,from warmness to coldness,during the next 9 to 1 2 years.