山东农业科学
山東農業科學
산동농업과학
SHANGDONG AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES
2014年
1期
100-104
,共5页
南疆地区%气温变化%红枣产量%超越对数生产函数%随机效应模型
南疆地區%氣溫變化%紅棘產量%超越對數生產函數%隨機效應模型
남강지구%기온변화%홍조산량%초월대수생산함수%수궤효응모형
Southern Xinjiang%Air temperature change%Jujube yield%Translog production function%Random effect model
通过分析南疆阿克苏、和田、喀什三地区1990～2011年内年平均温度、红枣各生育时期均温变化趋势，研究了温度对红枣产量的影响及对红枣产量变化的贡献情况。22年内南疆三地区年均温及红枣各生育时期均温均呈上升趋势，全年均温、萌芽开花期均温和果实膨大成熟期均温与红枣产量呈显著正相关，表明温度上升是提高红枣产量的重要原因。随机效应模型实证分析表明，南疆三地区温度变化对红枣产量变化的贡献率为7.54％，年温度每升高1℃，红枣产量提高9％～11.7％。
通過分析南疆阿剋囌、和田、喀什三地區1990～2011年內年平均溫度、紅棘各生育時期均溫變化趨勢，研究瞭溫度對紅棘產量的影響及對紅棘產量變化的貢獻情況。22年內南疆三地區年均溫及紅棘各生育時期均溫均呈上升趨勢，全年均溫、萌芽開花期均溫和果實膨大成熟期均溫與紅棘產量呈顯著正相關，錶明溫度上升是提高紅棘產量的重要原因。隨機效應模型實證分析錶明，南疆三地區溫度變化對紅棘產量變化的貢獻率為7.54％，年溫度每升高1℃，紅棘產量提高9％～11.7％。
통과분석남강아극소、화전、객십삼지구1990～2011년내년평균온도、홍조각생육시기균온변화추세，연구료온도대홍조산량적영향급대홍조산량변화적공헌정황。22년내남강삼지구년균온급홍조각생육시기균온균정상승추세，전년균온、맹아개화기균온화과실팽대성숙기균온여홍조산량정현저정상관，표명온도상승시제고홍조산량적중요원인。수궤효응모형실증분석표명，남강삼지구온도변화대홍조산량변화적공헌솔위7.54％，년온도매승고1℃，홍조산량제고9％～11.7％。
Through analyzing the change trends of annual mean temperature and mean temperature at each growth stage of jujube in Aksu , Hotan and Kashgar , southern Xinjiang , from 1990 to 2011 , the effect of air temperature on yield and the contribution to yield change of jujube were studied .The annual mean temper-ature and the mean temperature at each growth stage of jujube in the 3 regions increased in the tested 22 years.The annual mean temperature and the mean temperature at sprout -anthesis and fruit enlargement -maturity periods were all significantly correlated to the yield of jujube , which indicated that air temperature rise was the major reason for increasing jujube yield .Empirical analysis of random effect model showed that the contribution rate of air temperature on jujube yield change was 7 .54%.The jujube yield increased by 9%~11 .7%with every 1℃increase of annual mean temperature .
