经济与管理
經濟與管理
경제여관리
ECONOMY AND MANAGEMENT
2014年
1期
84-89
,共6页
金融发展%服务贸易%出口复杂度%出口结构
金融髮展%服務貿易%齣口複雜度%齣口結構
금융발전%복무무역%출구복잡도%출구결구
Financial development%Service trade%Export sophistication%Export structure
基于服务贸易出口复杂度的算法，选取中国2000-2012年相关数据，分析金融发展对服务贸易出口结构的溢出效应。结果表明：短期内，金融发展对服务贸易出口结构没有影响，不存在溢出效应；长期内，金融发展能显著促进服务贸易出口结构的优化，但其溢出效应具有滞后性；金融发展对服务贸易出口结构存在单向因果关系，服务贸易出口结构不会影响金融发展。基于此，实现中国金融业发展对服务贸易出口结构长期可持续溢出效应，应完善金融体系，做大做强金融业；合理引导金融机构贷款投放，加大信贷支持；推进多层次资金市场，拓宽投融资渠道。
基于服務貿易齣口複雜度的算法，選取中國2000-2012年相關數據，分析金融髮展對服務貿易齣口結構的溢齣效應。結果錶明：短期內，金融髮展對服務貿易齣口結構沒有影響，不存在溢齣效應；長期內，金融髮展能顯著促進服務貿易齣口結構的優化，但其溢齣效應具有滯後性；金融髮展對服務貿易齣口結構存在單嚮因果關繫，服務貿易齣口結構不會影響金融髮展。基于此，實現中國金融業髮展對服務貿易齣口結構長期可持續溢齣效應，應完善金融體繫，做大做彊金融業；閤理引導金融機構貸款投放，加大信貸支持；推進多層次資金市場，拓寬投融資渠道。
기우복무무역출구복잡도적산법，선취중국2000-2012년상관수거，분석금융발전대복무무역출구결구적일출효응。결과표명：단기내，금융발전대복무무역출구결구몰유영향，불존재일출효응；장기내，금융발전능현저촉진복무무역출구결구적우화，단기일출효응구유체후성；금융발전대복무무역출구결구존재단향인과관계，복무무역출구결구불회영향금융발전。기우차，실현중국금융업발전대복무무역출구결구장기가지속일출효응，응완선금융체계，주대주강금융업；합리인도금융궤구대관투방，가대신대지지；추진다층차자금시장，탁관투융자거도。
Based on the export sophistication of service trade and selected data in China during 2000-2012, this paper analyzes spillover effects of financial development on structure of export trade in services. The results show: In the short-run, financial development does not affect structure of export trade in services. In the long-run, financial development can promote the upgrading of export structure in services significantly, but the promotion is hysteretic. Financial development and export structure in services is unidirectional causality; export structure in services will not affect the development of finance. Based on this, the development of the financial industry to realize Chinese export structure of service trade long-term sustainable spillover effect, should improve the financial system, bigger and stronger financial industry; a reasonable guide financial institutions to increase loans, credit support; promote multi-level capital market, expand investment and financing channels.
