CAJ | 학술논문

随着中国的崛起，美国学者对中美之间是否会爆发冲突的讨论越来越多。美国学者认为，中美两国爆发直接军事冲突的可能性很小。这主要是由于：第一，中国无此野心，也无此实力。第二，中国在现存国际秩序中获益而非受损。第三，美国及其构筑的西方国际秩序依然强大，中国难以打破。但是，在次级争端如台湾问题和南海问题上，中美之间引发冲突的可能性还是存在的。在非传统安全领域特别是经贸领域，中美两国的摩擦将进一步加深，货币战争、贸易争端、国际组织话语权的争夺等将主导中美之间的冲突性质，但这些问题很难导致两国兵戎相见。因此，多数美国学者认为，未来几十年，中国的发展将继续依靠美国及其构建和主导的西方国际秩序。
수착중국적굴기，미국학자대중미지간시부회폭발충돌적토론월래월다。미국학자인위，중미량국폭발직접군사충돌적가능성흔소。저주요시유우：제일，중국무차야심，야무차실력。제이，중국재현존국제질서중획익이비수손。제삼，미국급기구축적서방국제질서의연강대，중국난이타파。단시，재차급쟁단여태만문제화남해문제상，중미지간인발충돌적가능성환시존재적。재비전통안전영역특별시경무영역，중미량국적마찰장진일보가심，화폐전쟁、무역쟁단、국제조직화어권적쟁탈등장주도중미지간적충돌성질，단저사문제흔난도치량국병융상견。인차，다수미국학자인위，미래궤십년，중국적발전장계속의고미국급기구건화주도적서방국제질서。
With the rise of China,discussions about whether the conflict would break out between China and America have increasingly become a central theme for American scholars many of whom believe that there is little possibility for the two countries to go to direct war.The reasons include:First,China has neither the ambition, nor the strength to challenge America militarily;Second,China benefits from the existing international order;and thirdly,the United States and its western international order remain strong,and it is difficult for China to break it.However,on the secondary issue of Taiwan and the South China Sea,the possibility of conflicts still exists.In the non-traditional security fields,especially economic and trade fields,the friction of the two countries will be further deepened and define the nature of the conflict,which may include currency wars,trade disputes, discourse competition for international organizations.But these disputes are not likely to evolve into war between the two countries.Thus,most American scholars believe that in the several decades to come,China's development will continue to rely on the United States and its Western-dominated international order.