CAJ | 학술논문

为有效调整中国电源结构，“十二五”期间，中国推出可再生能源配额制(renewable portfolio standard，RPS)。建立了可交易的绿色证书(tradable green certificates，TGC)市场和电力市场的局部均衡模型，分析了2个市场的交互作用机理，并利用系统动力学的方法对RPS在2012-2020年的实施情况进行模拟仿真和情景分析。研究结果表明：RPS通过市场机制和政府管制的共同作用，能够有效促进我国电源结构的调整。
위유효조정중국전원결구，“십이오”기간，중국추출가재생능원배액제(renewable portfolio standard，RPS)。건립료가교역적록색증서(tradable green certificates，TGC)시장화전력시장적국부균형모형，분석료2개시장적교호작용궤리，병이용계통동역학적방법대RPS재2012-2020년적실시정황진행모의방진화정경분석。연구결과표명：RPS통과시장궤제화정부관제적공동작용，능구유효촉진아국전원결구적조정。
ABSTRACT:To adjust China’s power source structure effectively, China executes renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policy in the period of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. In this paper two partial equilibrium models for tradable green certificates (TGC) market and electricity market are established and the interaction mechanism between the two markets is analyzed, and the method of system dynamics is used to carry out the simulation and scenario analysis on the implementation of RPS from 2012 to 2020, and the impact of implementing RPS policy on China’s power source structure. Research results show that through stipulating compulsory quantity the demand on lowest green electricity can be ensured and it promotes the adjustment of China’s power source structure; the fluctuation of green certificates during the implementation of RPS is the result of concurrent market mechanism and government regulation; the higher the specified RPS is, the more difficult the equilibrium between interactive TGC market and electricity market will be, however the effect of adjusting power source structure will be more evident finally.