CAJ | 학술논문

配电网故障引起的大停电事故的频频发生引发了人们对配电系统运行风险的研究。针对配电网发展过程中运行风险影响因素的不断增加，提出了一种考虑多种影响因素的配电网风险评估模型。模型中配电网停电成本的计算采用了一种新方法，该方法反映了停电频率、停电持续时间及停电电量对停电成本的综合影响，能更科学地计算出停电成本，使配电网风险评估结果更接近实际情况。最后采用蒙特卡罗法对RBTS Bus-3进行了风险评估，并与解析法的评估结果进行了对比，验证了评估方法的有效性。
배전망고장인기적대정전사고적빈빈발생인발료인문대배전계통운행풍험적연구。침대배전망발전과정중운행풍험영향인소적불단증가，제출료일충고필다충영향인소적배전망풍험평고모형。모형중배전망정전성본적계산채용료일충신방법，해방법반영료정전빈솔、정전지속시간급정전전량대정전성본적종합영향，능경과학지계산출정전성본，사배전망풍험평고결과경접근실제정황。최후채용몽특잡라법대RBTS Bus-3진행료풍험평고，병여해석법적평고결과진행료대비，험증료평고방법적유효성。
The frequent blackout caused by distribution network faults has sparked research on distribution system operation risks. For the continuous increase of operation risk influencing factors in the process of distribution network development, a risk assessment model considering various influencing factors of distribution network is proposed. In the model, a new method is adopted to calculate outage cost of distribution network, which reflects the comprehensive effect of interruption frequency, interruption duration and quantity of outage on the fault cost. The method can calculate outage cost better, and the distribution network risk assessment result is closer to actual situation. Finally, the Monte Carlo method is adopted to conduct the risk assessment of RBTS Bus-3, and the evaluation results are compared with those of analytical methods to verify the effectiveness of the method.