CAJ | 학술논문

利用新疆101个气象观测站点逐月降水实况资料和2001--2010年国家动力气候模式产品，进行月动力延伸预报产品的应用预测检验。采用R评分和同号率对内插预测结果进行效果评估，并与业务评分进行对比。结果表明：月动力延伸预报产品对新疆区域月降水趋势预测PS评分高于业务评分，而对各月降水距平百分率的同号率差异较大。夏、秋季咫评分较高，冬、春季风评分较低，季节转换时预测PS评分变率较大。
이용신강101개기상관측참점축월강수실황자료화2001--2010년국가동력기후모식산품，진행월동력연신예보산품적응용예측검험。채용R평분화동호솔대내삽예측결과진행효과평고，병여업무평분진행대비。결과표명：월동력연신예보산품대신강구역월강수추세예측PS평분고우업무평분，이대각월강수거평백분솔적동호솔차이교대。하、추계지평분교고，동、춘계풍평분교저，계절전환시예측PS평분변솔교대。
Abstract:Based on monthly rainfall data during January, 2001-December, 2010 from 101 observatory stations in Xinjiang and the graphic data produced by monthly dynamic extended range forecast model from National Climate Center, the forecast experiment on the explanation and reanalysis of monthly dynamical extended range forecast products was carried out.In this paper the results of interpolation prediction were tested by methods of forecast score (Ps) and anomaly sign score. The results showed that the PS score of explanation and reanalysis method of dynamical