CAJ | 학술논문

应用HBV—D水文模型和IPCCAR4提供的气候模拟数据，对西江流域的逐日径流过程进行了多气候模式、多温室气体排放情景模拟。在此基础上基于模拟资料和观测资料分析了流域过去及未来气候和水资源变化趋势，应用Wakeby广义极值分布函数分析了洪水强度和频率的变化。结果表明：（1）HBV—D模型在模拟西江流域逐日径流过程表现出较高性能，所选GCMs可客观反映研究区气温和降水变化，Wakeby函数能较好地拟合多时段多情景的洪水序列。（2）与全球升温趋势一致，流域气温也呈上升趋势，以夏季升温最为显著，且高排放情景升温趋势高于较低排放情景，高排放情景到2080s年均气温约升高2．9℃。（3）1960-2006年年降水量和年径流量呈减少趋势，未来则呈增加趋势，且未来长期变化大于中期变化，中期变化大于短期变化。（4）洪水强度随预估时间延长逐渐增强、频率逐渐增加，到2080s洪量可达基准期的1.3倍，重现期由30年缩短到2-10年。丰水期径流以及洪水强度增强、频率增加将给西江流域水资源管理特别是防汛抗洪增加压力，并可能对现有一些防洪工程造成威胁。
응용HBV—D수문모형화IPCCAR4제공적기후모의수거，대서강류역적축일경류과정진행료다기후모식、다온실기체배방정경모의。재차기출상기우모의자료화관측자료분석료류역과거급미래기후화수자원변화추세，응용Wakeby엄의겁치분포함수분석료홍수강도화빈솔적변화。결과표명：（1）HBV—D모형재모의서강류역축일경류과정표현출교고성능，소선GCMs가객관반영연구구기온화강수변화，Wakeby함수능교호지의합다시단다정경적홍수서렬。（2）여전구승온추세일치，류역기온야정상승추세，이하계승온최위현저，차고배방정경승온추세고우교저배방정경，고배방정경도2080s년균기온약승고2．9℃。（3）1960-2006년년강수량화년경류량정감소추세，미래칙정증가추세，차미래장기변화대우중기변화，중기변화대우단기변화。（4）홍수강도수예고시간연장축점증강、빈솔축점증가，도2080s홍량가체기준기적1.3배，중현기유30년축단도2-10년。봉수기경류이급홍수강도증강、빈솔증가장급서강류역수자원관리특별시방신항홍증가압력，병가능대현유일사방홍공정조성위협。
Changes of climate and runoff in the past and future were analyzed using observation and simulation from three GCMs and hydrological model HBV-D for control period and the 21st century under three GHG emission scenarios. Then the following conclusions are drawn. (1) Hydrological model HBV-D shows good performance in simulating daily discharge through the outlet of Xijiang River from the results of calibration and validation. The changes of temperature and precipitation can be simulated by three GCMs selected. The Wakeby function fits flood series well in different periods under different scenarios. (2) Consist with rising trend in global temperature, rising trends are also discovered in annual average temperature in the past and in the future. It will rise 2.9℃ in 2080s under SRES A2. The rising trends are significant in Summer, and more significant under high emission scenario than under low scenario. (3) Annual precipitation and runoff decreased in the past. However, they will increase in the future with larger amplitude in long-term than mid-term, and mid-term than short-term. (4) Upward trends are discovered in precipitation and runoff during high flow period, but downward trends during low flow period in future. (5) The flood will gradually increase with time, up to 1.3 times that during baseline. At the same time, more and more flood will occur. In 2080s, the recurrence of 30-year flood becomes 2-10 years in 2080s. As resuits, some flood-prevention constructions will be threatened. Flood controls in the Xijiang basin will be challenged by more and severer floods.