农业科学与技术：英文版
農業科學與技術：英文版
농업과학여기술：영문판
Agricultural Science ＆ Technology
2012年
12期
2594-2597,2609
,共5页
棉蚜%发生规律%小波分析%预报方法
棉蚜%髮生規律%小波分析%預報方法
면아%발생규률%소파분석%예보방법
Cotton aphid%Occurrence rule%Wavelet analysis%Forecast method
目的 探讨九江鄱阳湖区棉蚜发生规律与预报方法，以丰富该地区棉蚜预报技术。方法 采用对比分析、相关分析和小波分析方法分析了江西省彭泽县近28年来棉蚜的发生规律性及影响因子，通过逐步回归方法建立了棉蚜发生等级长期预报模式与中短期气象条件适宜度预报模式，并在鄱阳湖北部棉区开展了预报试验。结果 小波分析表明：近28年来，鄱阳湖北部棉花伏蚜发生等级存在4年主要振荡周期，而棉花苗蚜发生等级周期性振荡不明显。对比分析与相关分析表明：棉花蚜虫的发生为害与冬季气候背景及中短期气象条件存在显著相关性。预报试验表明：利用单站要素研制的棉花蚜虫发生等级长期预报模式与中短期气象条件适宜度预报模式在气候相似区推广应用的信度是可靠的。结论 为有效开展棉区棉蚜防治工作提供了理论依据。
目的 探討九江鄱暘湖區棉蚜髮生規律與預報方法，以豐富該地區棉蚜預報技術。方法 採用對比分析、相關分析和小波分析方法分析瞭江西省彭澤縣近28年來棉蚜的髮生規律性及影響因子，通過逐步迴歸方法建立瞭棉蚜髮生等級長期預報模式與中短期氣象條件適宜度預報模式，併在鄱暘湖北部棉區開展瞭預報試驗。結果 小波分析錶明：近28年來，鄱暘湖北部棉花伏蚜髮生等級存在4年主要振盪週期，而棉花苗蚜髮生等級週期性振盪不明顯。對比分析與相關分析錶明：棉花蚜蟲的髮生為害與鼕季氣候揹景及中短期氣象條件存在顯著相關性。預報試驗錶明：利用單站要素研製的棉花蚜蟲髮生等級長期預報模式與中短期氣象條件適宜度預報模式在氣候相似區推廣應用的信度是可靠的。結論 為有效開展棉區棉蚜防治工作提供瞭理論依據。
목적 탐토구강파양호구면아발생규률여예보방법，이봉부해지구면아예보기술。방법 채용대비분석、상관분석화소파분석방법분석료강서성팽택현근28년래면아적발생규률성급영향인자，통과축보회귀방법건립료면아발생등급장기예보모식여중단기기상조건괄의도예보모식，병재파양호북부면구개전료예보시험。결과 소파분석표명：근28년래，파양호북부면화복아발생등급존재4년주요진탕주기，이면화묘아발생등급주기성진탕불명현。대비분석여상관분석표명：면화아충적발생위해여동계기후배경급중단기기상조건존재현저상관성。예보시험표명：이용단참요소연제적면화아충발생등급장기예보모식여중단기기상조건괄의도예보모식재기후상사구추엄응용적신도시가고적。결론 위유효개전면구면아방치공작제공료이론의거。
[Objective] The aim was to explore occurrence rules and forecast methods of cotton aphid in Poyang Lake Area in Jiujiang City to enrich prediction methods of cotton aphid in the area. [Method] The occurrence rules and influencing factors of cotton aphid in Pengze County in 28 years were analyzed with comparative analysis, correlation analysis and wavelet analysis. Furthermore, a long-term forecast model of occurrence grade of cotton aphid and a short-term forecast model of weather condi- tion suitability were established based on stepwise regression. In addition, a forecast test was conducted in cotton area in the north of Poyang Lake. [Result] The wavelet analysis showed that in recent 28 years, oscillating period at 4 years was significant for the occurrence grade of cotton aphid in the north of Poyang Lake, but insignifi- cant for cotton at seedling stage. The comparative and correlation analyses suggest- ed that occurrence of cotton aphid is of significant correlation with winter climate and weather conditions at middle and short periods. The prediction test indicated that long-term forecast model of occurrence grade of cotton aphid and short-term forecast model of weather condition suitability based on stepwise regression can be made use of in the areas with similar climate. [Conclusion] The research provides theoreti- cal references for prevention against cotton aphid in cotton-planting area.
