CAJ | 학술논문

根据1949-2009年热带气旋路径资料，分析影响粤东沿海地区的TC气候特征，包括TC频数、路径趋向及强度变化等气候特征。结果表明，影响粤东沿海地区的TC频数自1982年以来呈减少趋势，台风季缩短；TC移动路径的主导方向为西北偏西（WNW），出现频率为36．9％；自1982年以来，无论是在TC生命史阶段，还是进入影响区后．达到台风量级的TC数量占总数的比例均有所上升，而强台风和超强台风的比例则均明显下降。文章最后根据历年TC资料建立极端TC风速、气压序列，利用皮尔逊-Ⅲ型概率分布法，计算了影响粤东沿海的可能最大热带气旋（PMTC）中心附近最大风速和中心最低气压，计算得到的100年一遇最大风速和最低气压分别为67．9m．s-1和914．0hPa。
근거1949-2009년열대기선로경자료，분석영향월동연해지구적TC기후특정，포괄TC빈수、로경추향급강도변화등기후특정。결과표명，영향월동연해지구적TC빈수자1982년이래정감소추세，태풍계축단；TC이동로경적주도방향위서북편서（WNW），출현빈솔위36．9％；자1982년이래，무론시재TC생명사계단，환시진입영향구후．체도태풍량급적TC수량점총수적비례균유소상승，이강태풍화초강태풍적비례칙균명현하강。문장최후근거력년TC자료건립겁단TC풍속、기압서렬，이용피이손-Ⅲ형개솔분포법，계산료영향월동연해적가능최대열대기선（PMTC）중심부근최대풍속화중심최저기압，계산득도적100년일우최대풍속화최저기압분별위67．9m．s-1화914．0hPa。
Basing the data of the tropical cyclones (TC) from 1949-2009, the climate characteristics of TC impacting eastern Guangdong coastal area were analyzed. The results show that, the TC is decreasing since 1982. The dominant direction of TC routes is WNW with the frequency of 36.9%. The proportion of Typhoon (Strong typhoon, super Strong typhoon) rises (declines) since 1982. The sequence of the extreme TC wind and the air pressure are also established. Then using the Pearson-Ⅲ probability distribution method, the maximum wind speed and minimum air pressure of the possible maximum tropical cyclones (PMTC) were calculated. It shows that the once-in-100-years maximum wind speed (air pressure) is 67.9 m/s (914.0 hPa) .