CAJ | 학술논문

以广西1950年至1991年干旱灾害的旱情为数据，选取适当的评价指标，用信息熵确定客观权重、层次分析法确定主观权重，用最小信息熵原理确定组合权重，经过加权求和得出干旱灾害的模糊综合评价，进而对41个评价对象进行排序。同时，建立了基于改进的灰色GM（1，1）的时间响应式的灾变年份预测模型，为提高预测精度，对原始数据进行了7次方根变换，进行灾变年预测，准确率达80％。其结果能很好的检测预测模型，反映干旱灾害的实际情况，收到较好的效果。
이엄서1950년지1991년간한재해적한정위수거，선취괄당적평개지표，용신식적학정객관권중、층차분석법학정주관권중，용최소신식적원리학정조합권중，경과가권구화득출간한재해적모호종합평개，진이대41개평개대상진행배서。동시，건립료기우개진적회색GM（1，1）적시간향응식적재변년빈예측모형，위제고예측정도，대원시수거진행료7차방근변환，진행재변년예측，준학솔체80％。기결과능흔호적검측예측모형，반영간한재해적실제정황，수도교호적효과。
Basing Guangxi drought disaster information from 1950-1991, using information entropy (AHP, the minimum information entropy principle) to determine the objective weight (subjective weight, combination weight) and weighted sum method, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and prediction was build to sorts 41 evaluation objects. The disastrous year prediction model based on improved gray GM (1, 1) time-response style was also established. Using the 7th root transformation of the raw data to improve the prediction accuracy, the disaster year forecast accuracy rate is 80%.