宁波职业技术学院学报
寧波職業技術學院學報
저파직업기술학원학보
THE JOURNAL OF NINGBO POLYTECHNIC
2013年
4期
86-89
,共4页
可支配收入%消费支出%协整%误差修正
可支配收入%消費支齣%協整%誤差脩正
가지배수입%소비지출%협정%오차수정
disposable income%consumption expenditure%stability%Granger Causality Test%co-integration analysis
以福建省为例，利用协整理论和1995-2011年间的城镇居民可支配收入和人均消费支出数据，构建了误差修正模型，对两者之间的关系进行了动态计量分析。结果表明，城镇居民可支配收入和消费支出存在协整关系，居民的消费行为受到可支配收入的明显影响，同时，前一期的误差对当期的消费出也有着显著作用。此外，由于福建省的低水平社会福利导致了居民的预储蓄行为，这就需要加大调整力度将居民可支配收入与消费支出之间的非均衡状态拉回到长期均衡状态。
以福建省為例，利用協整理論和1995-2011年間的城鎮居民可支配收入和人均消費支齣數據，構建瞭誤差脩正模型，對兩者之間的關繫進行瞭動態計量分析。結果錶明，城鎮居民可支配收入和消費支齣存在協整關繫，居民的消費行為受到可支配收入的明顯影響，同時，前一期的誤差對噹期的消費齣也有著顯著作用。此外，由于福建省的低水平社會福利導緻瞭居民的預儲蓄行為，這就需要加大調整力度將居民可支配收入與消費支齣之間的非均衡狀態拉迴到長期均衡狀態。
이복건성위례，이용협정이론화1995-2011년간적성진거민가지배수입화인균소비지출수거，구건료오차수정모형，대량자지간적관계진행료동태계량분석。결과표명，성진거민가지배수입화소비지출존재협정관계，거민적소비행위수도가지배수입적명현영향，동시，전일기적오차대당기적소비출야유착현저작용。차외，유우복건성적저수평사회복리도치료거민적예저축행위，저취수요가대조정력도장거민가지배수입여소비지출지간적비균형상태랍회도장기균형상태。
Based on the data about disposable income and per capita consumption expenditure from 1995 to 2011,the paper establishes error correction model and analyzes the dynamic econometric relationship between disposable income and consumption expenditure of Fujian urban residents with the application of the co-integration theory. The analysis shows that there exists a co-integration relationship between disposable income and consumption expenditure,and urban residents’ consumption behaviors are significantly affected by their disposable income. Besides,the previous errors also exert great influence on residents’ consumption expenditure behaviors. The low-level social welfare in Fujian Province has led to residents’ precautionary savings behaviors. Thus,more efforts should be made in the adjustment of urban residents’ disposable income and their consumption expenditure from the state of disequilibrium to long-term equilibrium.
