CAJ | 학술논문

选用2001～2010年大理州的森林火灾次数与对应的气象数据进行统计分析,分析结果表明日最高气温、平均相对湿度、最大风速和前15日累计降水量对大理州森林火灾有较好的指示性,其中日平均相对湿度对大理州森林火险天气等级指示性最强。根据实际应用需要选用日最高气温、平均相对湿度、最大风速和前9日的降水数据建立模型计算森林火险天气等级。利用2011年大理州森林火灾数据对模型的模拟效果进行检验,检验效果很好,说明运用此模型进行大理州森林火险天气预报是可行的。
선용2001～2010년대리주적삼림화재차수여대응적기상수거진행통계분석,분석결과표명일최고기온、평균상대습도、최대풍속화전15일루계강수량대대리주삼림화재유교호적지시성,기중일평균상대습도대대리주삼림화험천기등급지시성최강。근거실제응용수요선용일최고기온、평균상대습도、최대풍속화전9일적강수수거건립모형계산삼림화험천기등급。이용2011년대리주삼림화재수거대모형적모의효과진행검험,검험효과흔호,설명운용차모형진행대리주삼림화험천기예보시가행적。
By using the data of Dali Prefecture forest fire danger and meteorological information from 2001 to 2012 to analyze their correlation,we concluded that daily maximum temperature,daily mean relative humidity,maximum wind speed and precipitation of previous 15 days had a good indicative of forest fire danger in Dali Prefecture,among which,daily mean relative humidity was the most significant factor.After using the data of daily maximum temperature,daily mean relative humidity,maximum wind speed and precipitation of previous 9 days to establish the model of forest fire danger rate,our practice approved that the inspection model was feasible in Dali Prefecture.