CAJ | 학술논문

通过对传统工期分析方法（关键路径法CPM、计划评审技术PERT）和工期模拟技术（MCS—CB）的比较研究，发现模拟技术不仅能够克服CPM中未涉及的工期不确定性问题，而且能够解决PERT中假设过多、过分乐观估计完工概率的问题；继而对MCS—CB的原理、软件运用以及案例应用进行了系统研究，很好地实现了关键路线的选择、分项工程和总工期的概率分布选择、完工概率分析以及基于敏感性判断的工期优化等工作。
통과대전통공기분석방법（관건로경법CPM、계화평심기술PERT）화공기모의기술（MCS—CB）적비교연구，발현모의기술불부능구극복CPM중미섭급적공기불학정성문제，이차능구해결PERT중가설과다、과분악관고계완공개솔적문제；계이대MCS—CB적원리、연건운용이급안례응용진행료계통연구，흔호지실현료관건로선적선택、분항공정화총공기적개솔분포선택、완공개솔분석이급기우민감성판단적공기우화등공작。
Through the comparative studies between the traditional construction period analysis method (CPM, PERT) and construction period simulation technology (MCS-CB) , the authors found out that simulation technol- ogy not only can overcome the construction period uncertainty problem that not covered by CPM, but also can solve the problem of too many hypothesises for using PERT and too optimistic for estimating the probability of complete the construction. Moreover this paper has systematically studied the principle of the MCS-CB, the application of software and the case application. Thus, it is well to realize many works, such as the selection of critical line, the se- lection of probability distribution of component project and total construction period, the probability of completion analysis, and the time optimization based on sensitivity judgement ,etc.