水利学报
水利學報
수리학보
2012年
11期
1341-1348
,共8页
降雨特性%非参数统计方法%趋势检定%气候变化%高屏溪流域
降雨特性%非參數統計方法%趨勢檢定%氣候變化%高屏溪流域
강우특성%비삼수통계방법%추세검정%기후변화%고병계류역
Rainfall characteristic%Nonparametric statistical methods%Trend test%Climate change%Kao-Ping River Basin
主要探讨气候变化下高屏溪流域的降雨变化趋势。首先将高屏溪流域依据潮州断层划分为山区与平原两个区域，利用Mann-Whitney-Pettitt（MWP）检定、Mann—Kendall趋势检定及t值检定等非参数统计方法，探讨山区及平原年降雨量、年一日最大降雨量、年降雨天数、年降雨强度及各季节降雨类型的差异及变化趋势。分析结果显示，山区及平原区在降雨强度上具有显著增加趋势，其发生显著变化的变异时间均分布在2000-2004年。因此，将数据变异点划分为前后两个样本，各测站在变异点之后发生超大暴雨事件的频率较变异点前有较大增加，其变异点之前山区平均发生超大暴雨事件的频率约2年一遇，平原区约8年一遇；变异点后山区约1年二遇，平原则2年一遇。各季节降雨类型检定中，台风季具有显著差异，于变异点后呈现增大现象，显示1980-2009年期间的降雨量在丰水期间有显著增加趋势且主要集中在台风季节，而枯水期间则无显著变化趋势。
主要探討氣候變化下高屏溪流域的降雨變化趨勢。首先將高屏溪流域依據潮州斷層劃分為山區與平原兩箇區域，利用Mann-Whitney-Pettitt（MWP）檢定、Mann—Kendall趨勢檢定及t值檢定等非參數統計方法，探討山區及平原年降雨量、年一日最大降雨量、年降雨天數、年降雨彊度及各季節降雨類型的差異及變化趨勢。分析結果顯示，山區及平原區在降雨彊度上具有顯著增加趨勢，其髮生顯著變化的變異時間均分佈在2000-2004年。因此，將數據變異點劃分為前後兩箇樣本，各測站在變異點之後髮生超大暴雨事件的頻率較變異點前有較大增加，其變異點之前山區平均髮生超大暴雨事件的頻率約2年一遇，平原區約8年一遇；變異點後山區約1年二遇，平原則2年一遇。各季節降雨類型檢定中，檯風季具有顯著差異，于變異點後呈現增大現象，顯示1980-2009年期間的降雨量在豐水期間有顯著增加趨勢且主要集中在檯風季節，而枯水期間則無顯著變化趨勢。
주요탐토기후변화하고병계류역적강우변화추세。수선장고병계류역의거조주단층화분위산구여평원량개구역，이용Mann-Whitney-Pettitt（MWP）검정、Mann—Kendall추세검정급t치검정등비삼수통계방법，탐토산구급평원년강우량、년일일최대강우량、년강우천수、년강우강도급각계절강우류형적차이급변화추세。분석결과현시，산구급평원구재강우강도상구유현저증가추세，기발생현저변화적변이시간균분포재2000-2004년。인차，장수거변이점화분위전후량개양본，각측참재변이점지후발생초대폭우사건적빈솔교변이점전유교대증가，기변이점지전산구평균발생초대폭우사건적빈솔약2년일우，평원구약8년일우；변이점후산구약1년이우，평원칙2년일우。각계절강우류형검정중，태풍계구유현저차이，우변이점후정현증대현상，현시1980-2009년기간적강우량재봉수기간유현저증가추세차주요집중재태풍계절，이고수기간칙무현저변화추세。
This study attempted to examine rainfall change tendency in Kaoping River basin under the climatic change condition. The basin was divided into the mountain and the flat regions along the Chaozhou fault in the basin. Nonparametrie methods including the Mann-Whitney-Pettitt (MWP) test, the Mann-Kendall tendency test, and t test were used to analyse the difference and tendency of annual rainfall, maximum daily rainfall, annual rainfall days, annual rainfall intensity, and seasonal rainfall types. The analysis results show that the tendency of rainfall amounts and intensity have obviously increased in both mountain and the flat regions. The remarkable change periods were occurred ranging from years 2000 to 2004. Therefore, the data were divided into two time periods based on the change point. Before the change point, the frequencies of strong torrential rain events were once per 2 and 8 years for mountain and flat regions, respectively. However, after change point the frequencies were increased to two times per year in mountain region and once two year in flat region. In the various season rainfall type tests, however, the rainfall was shown increase in the typhoon season only after the change point. This demonstrated that the rainfall has increased tendency in wet season in the period 1980-2009, especially concentrates in the typhoon season, hut the rainfall has not remarkable change tendency in dry season.
