现代农业科技
現代農業科技
현대농업과기
XIANDAIHUA NONGYE
2012年
24期
256-259,265
,共5页
赵明瑞%胡丽莉%刘蓉%张春松
趙明瑞%鬍麗莉%劉蓉%張春鬆
조명서%호려리%류용%장춘송
平均气温%变化特征%民勤绿洲%近58年
平均氣溫%變化特徵%民勤綠洲%近58年
평균기온%변화특정%민근록주%근58년
average temperature%change characteristics%Minqin oasis%recent 58 years
根据民勤气象站1953—2010年逐年气温资料,利用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall、滑动平均等方法分析了近58年民勤气温月、季、年、年代际及近10年的变化特征,结果表明：①平均气温月、季、年及年代际均呈升高趋势,1989年出现突变,近10年是58年中最暖的时期。②平均最低（高）气温的月、季、年及年代际均呈升高趋势,升温趋势略有差异,最低温度比最高温度升温明显大,平均最低气温1987年出现突变,平均最高气温1989年出现突变,近10年平均最低气温最高、平均最高气温略低于20世纪90年代。③极端低温日呈明显减少的趋势,极端高温日数呈略微增多的趋势,气温日较差呈显著减小的趋势。历史极端低（高）温均出现在近10年。④气温的升高使民勤热量资源发生变化,活动积温增大,对种植棉花等经济作物有利。
根據民勤氣象站1953—2010年逐年氣溫資料,利用趨勢分析、Mann-Kendall、滑動平均等方法分析瞭近58年民勤氣溫月、季、年、年代際及近10年的變化特徵,結果錶明：①平均氣溫月、季、年及年代際均呈升高趨勢,1989年齣現突變,近10年是58年中最暖的時期。②平均最低（高）氣溫的月、季、年及年代際均呈升高趨勢,升溫趨勢略有差異,最低溫度比最高溫度升溫明顯大,平均最低氣溫1987年齣現突變,平均最高氣溫1989年齣現突變,近10年平均最低氣溫最高、平均最高氣溫略低于20世紀90年代。③極耑低溫日呈明顯減少的趨勢,極耑高溫日數呈略微增多的趨勢,氣溫日較差呈顯著減小的趨勢。歷史極耑低（高）溫均齣現在近10年。④氣溫的升高使民勤熱量資源髮生變化,活動積溫增大,對種植棉花等經濟作物有利。
근거민근기상참1953—2010년축년기온자료,이용추세분석、Mann-Kendall、활동평균등방법분석료근58년민근기온월、계、년、년대제급근10년적변화특정,결과표명：①평균기온월、계、년급년대제균정승고추세,1989년출현돌변,근10년시58년중최난적시기。②평균최저（고）기온적월、계、년급년대제균정승고추세,승온추세략유차이,최저온도비최고온도승온명현대,평균최저기온1987년출현돌변,평균최고기온1989년출현돌변,근10년평균최저기온최고、평균최고기온략저우20세기90년대。③겁단저온일정명현감소적추세,겁단고온일수정략미증다적추세,기온일교차정현저감소적추세。역사겁단저（고）온균출현재근10년。④기온적승고사민근열량자원발생변화,활동적온증대,대충식면화등경제작물유리。
According to yearly temperature datas of Minqin weather stations from 1953 to 2010 ,using trend analysis, Mann-Kendall,the moving average method, nearly 58 years temperature monthly, quarterly, annual, deeadal and nearly 10 years variation were analyzed,The results showed that: ①The average temperature in monthly, quarterly, annual and decadal showed increasing trends and suddenly changed in 1989, nearly 10 years was the warmest period in recent 58 years.②The average of the lowest (highest)temperatures monthly, quarterly, annual and decadal showed increasing trend, the warming trend was slightly different ,the lowest temperature warming significantly larger than the maximum temperature.The mean minimum temperature suddenly changed in 1987, the average maximum temperature was suddenly changed in 1989, the mean minimum temperature of nearly 10 years average maximum temperature showed slightly lower than in the 1990s.③Extreme low temperature days showed significantly reducing trends, extreme high temperature days showed a slightly increasing trend and diurnal temperature trend was significantly reduced. History of extreme low (high) temperature appear in the Last 10 Years.④Elevated temperature made Minqin heat resources change, the active accumulated temperature increases.The situation were favorable to the cultivation of cotton and other cash crops.
