CAJ | 학술논문

研究目的：对2003-2010年中国31个省（自治区、直辖市）粮食产量的空间自相关性、集聚性进行考察和分析，发现中国粮食生产的空间分布及变化规律。研究方法：GIS技术与空间计量分析方法。研究结果：（1）观测期内中国粮食产量存在显著的空间自相关关系。（2）中部地区一直存在粮食产量“高-高”空间关联性，围绕安徽、山东等省形成显著的粮食高产集聚区。西北地区存在“低-低”空间关联模式，新疆附近为显著低产集聚区。粮食产量显著离散的主要分布在四川、海南等省附近。研究结论：观测期内，地区间粮食产量的增减会对粮食产量的空间集聚、离散趋势产生一定影响，但粮食产量重心变动并不显著；为保障中国粮食产量，需要增加对粮食主产区耕地的保护与投入力度，同时不断改善其他宜农地区的耕作环境。
연구목적：대2003-2010년중국31개성（자치구、직할시）양식산량적공간자상관성、집취성진행고찰화분석，발현중국양식생산적공간분포급변화규률。연구방법：GIS기술여공간계량분석방법。연구결과：（1）관측기내중국양식산량존재현저적공간자상관관계。（2）중부지구일직존재양식산량“고-고”공간관련성，위요안휘、산동등성형성현저적양식고산집취구。서북지구존재“저-저”공간관련모식，신강부근위현저저산집취구。양식산량현저리산적주요분포재사천、해남등성부근。연구결론：관측기내，지구간양식산량적증감회대양식산량적공간집취、리산추세산생일정영향，단양식산량중심변동병불현저；위보장중국양식산량，수요증가대양식주산구경지적보호여투입력도，동시불단개선기타의농지구적경작배경。
The purpose of this paper is to find the regularity of spatial variation of grain yield in China via investigating the spatial correlation and clustering of the grain yield of the thirty-one provinces in China. GIS and spatial econometric analysis methods were used. The results indicate that 1) there was a significant spatial correlation and clustering effects of the grain yield in China;2) spatial correlation was found among the provinces with high grain yield in Central China, and so were the provinces with low yield in Northwest China. The clustering effect was significant around Anhui, Shandong and Xinjiang Provinces. The scattering feature was significant in Sichuan and Hainan Provinces, respectively. The paper concludes that the changes of grain yield in different provinces affect the regularity of clustering and scattering, but the main grain yield region remained the same. To safeguard the grain yield in China, increasing the intensity and investment of farmland protection is necessary. Meanwhile, the environment for other feasible regions of agriculture should be continuously improved.