CAJ | 학술논문

综合考虑了装备、保障系统、管理和人员、保障方案等要素，提出了一种基于模糊贝叶斯的导弹武器系统可靠性和可用性分析方法，将先验信息和样本数据有效融合，采用模糊随机变量来处理数据的不确定。通过算例分析，验证了模型的有效性。结论表明，该方法所得的评估结果符合装备的实际情况。
종합고필료장비、보장계통、관리화인원、보장방안등요소，제출료일충기우모호패협사적도탄무기계통가고성화가용성분석방법，장선험신식화양본수거유효융합，채용모호수궤변량래처리수거적불학정。통과산례분석，험증료모형적유효성。결론표명，해방법소득적평고결과부합장비적실제정황。
Considering all equipments, support system, management and personnel, and plan, a new modeling method for determining the reliability and availability of a missile weapon system was proposed based on fuzzy Bayesian theory. The model made full use of prior information and statistics, and adopted fuzzy random vari-ables to handle uncertainty of data. The suggested modeling method was illustrated on an example. The results showed that the methods based on fuzzy Bayesian theory were applicative to missile weapon system.