水资源保护
水資源保護
수자원보호
WATER RESOURCES PROTECTION
2013年
6期
6-12
,共7页
降水量%概率分布%长江源区%黄河源区
降水量%概率分佈%長江源區%黃河源區
강수량%개솔분포%장강원구%황하원구
precipitation%probability distribution%source region of Yangtze River%source region of Yellow River
利用长江源区和黄河源区22个气象站1961-2010年的逐日降水量资料，基于正态分布和Gamma分布，从概率角度讨论了两个源区的年、季节和日降水量的变化特征。结果表明：黄河源区年平均降水量和标准差均大于长江源区，近年来长江源区降水量明显增多，两者之间差异减小。两个源区年内降水量分布很不均匀，长江源区降水量大多集中于夏季，年际间丰枯差异显著；黄河源区降水量集中于夏季，年际变率随时间变化减小，降水稳定性增加；两个源区的日降水量以小雨为主，极端日降水量可达暴雨程度，近年来，随着形状参数和尺度参数的增大，日降水量概率分布有偏度和陡峭度减小的趋势，导致日降水量有所增大，进而影响到极端日降水量，使其有增大趋势。
利用長江源區和黃河源區22箇氣象站1961-2010年的逐日降水量資料，基于正態分佈和Gamma分佈，從概率角度討論瞭兩箇源區的年、季節和日降水量的變化特徵。結果錶明：黃河源區年平均降水量和標準差均大于長江源區，近年來長江源區降水量明顯增多，兩者之間差異減小。兩箇源區年內降水量分佈很不均勻，長江源區降水量大多集中于夏季，年際間豐枯差異顯著；黃河源區降水量集中于夏季，年際變率隨時間變化減小，降水穩定性增加；兩箇源區的日降水量以小雨為主，極耑日降水量可達暴雨程度，近年來，隨著形狀參數和呎度參數的增大，日降水量概率分佈有偏度和陡峭度減小的趨勢，導緻日降水量有所增大，進而影響到極耑日降水量，使其有增大趨勢。
이용장강원구화황하원구22개기상참1961-2010년적축일강수량자료，기우정태분포화Gamma분포，종개솔각도토론료량개원구적년、계절화일강수량적변화특정。결과표명：황하원구년평균강수량화표준차균대우장강원구，근년래장강원구강수량명현증다，량자지간차이감소。량개원구년내강수량분포흔불균균，장강원구강수량대다집중우하계，년제간봉고차이현저；황하원구강수량집중우하계，년제변솔수시간변화감소，강수은정성증가；량개원구적일강수량이소우위주，겁단일강수량가체폭우정도，근년래，수착형상삼수화척도삼수적증대，일강수량개솔분포유편도화두초도감소적추세，도치일강수량유소증대，진이영향도겁단일강수량，사기유증대추세。
Daily precipitation data from 22 meteorological stations in the source regions of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River from 1961 to 2010 were used to investigate the characteristics of annual, seasonal, and daily variations of precipitation over these regions from the perspective of probability, based on normal and gamma distributions. The results show that both the annual average precipitation and the standard deviation in the source region of the Yellow River were greater than those in the source region of the Yangtze River. Precipitation in the source region of the Yangtze River has increased significantly in recent years, resulting in the reduction of the difference between the two source regions. Intra-annual precipitation distribution was very uneven in the two source regions. Precipitation in the source region of the Yangtze River was mostly concentrated in the summer, and there was an obvious wet and dry difference in inter-annual precipitation. Precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River was concentrated in the summer, and the inter-annual variability decreased while the precipitation stability increased over time. Daily precipitation in the two source regions was mainly drizzle. However, the extreme daily precipitation could reach the level of storm rain. In recent years, with the increase of the shape and scale parameters, there has been a decreasing trend in the skewness and steepness of the probability distribution of daily precipitation, resulting in an increase in daily precipitation and an increasing trend of extreme daily precipitation.
