CAJ | 학술논문

储量替代率是反映石油公司经营状况特别是可持续发展潜力的重要指标，也是石油公司合理制定年度计划的重要依据和考核各分公司的重要指标。由于受很多不确定因素的影响，对储量替代率的准确预测难度很大。介绍了SEC储量替代率的内涵和特点，从SEC储量变化构成特点探讨了SEC储量替代率预测方法，即通过预测年度的“扩边及新发现”新增储量、“老区提高采收率”增加可采储量和“修正”储量这三部分的储量，进而预测SEC储量替代率。该方法具有简单、可操作性强的特点。利用该方法对2011年某油田的SEC储量替代率进行了预测和验证，并讨论了影响SEC储量替代率指标预测结果的4个主要因素。
저량체대솔시반영석유공사경영상황특별시가지속발전잠력적중요지표，야시석유공사합리제정년도계화적중요의거화고핵각분공사적중요지표。유우수흔다불학정인소적영향，대저량체대솔적준학예측난도흔대。개소료SEC저량체대솔적내함화특점，종SEC저량변화구성특점탐토료SEC저량체대솔예측방법，즉통과예측년도적“확변급신발현”신증저량、“로구제고채수솔”증가가채저량화“수정”저량저삼부분적저량，진이예측SEC저량체대솔。해방법구유간단、가조작성강적특점。이용해방법대2011년모유전적SEC저량체대솔진행료예측화험증，병토론료영향SEC저량체대솔지표예측결과적4개주요인소。
The reserve replacement rate is an important reflection of the management state of oil companies, es-pecially in sustainable development. It is also an important indicator for oil companies to make annual plan and an important basis for branch company assessment. Because of many uncertain factors, it is very difficult to predict the reserve replacement rate. The connotation and characteristics of the SEC reserve replacement rate have been in-troduced in this paper, through forecasting three parts of the reserves, which include the annual“boundary exten-ding and new discovery of new reserves”,“increasing recoverable reserves” and“correction” reserves. Then the SEC reserve replacement rate has been predicated. The method is simple and easy to operate. It has been applied in some oilfield to predict the SEC reserve replacement rate for the year 2011. Four main affecting factors for SEC reserves replacement rate have been discussed.