CAJ | 학술논문

为了科学地确定台风浪和风暴潮预报时采用的台风参数,利用中央气象台、日本气象厅、美国国家天气局、香港天文台和中国台湾气象局发布的预报资料,对各台站发布的2012年发生在西北太平洋上25个热带气旋的预报成果总体误差进行了分析和比较,并就2012年出现的两次双台风的预报误差进行了个例分析。结果表明：就整体而言,台风路径预报中,香港天文台的24 h,48 h和72 h预报次数最少但精度最高,分别为85.8 km,129.8 km,209.0 km；台风强度(最大风速)预报中,中央气象台在不同预报时效的平均绝对误差最小(4.5 m/s,6.0 m/s,6.6 m/s)且预报最稳定。而对于双台风的移动过程和强度变化,各台站的预报精度水平不一。
위료과학지학정태풍랑화풍폭조예보시채용적태풍삼수,이용중앙기상태、일본기상청、미국국가천기국、향항천문태화중국태만기상국발포적예보자료,대각태참발포적2012년발생재서북태평양상25개열대기선적예보성과총체오차진행료분석화비교,병취2012년출현적량차쌍태풍적예보오차진행료개례분석。결과표명：취정체이언,태풍로경예보중,향항천문태적24 h,48 h화72 h예보차수최소단정도최고,분별위85.8 km,129.8 km,209.0 km；태풍강도(최대풍속)예보중,중앙기상태재불동예보시효적평균절대오차최소(4.5 m/s,6.0 m/s,6.6 m/s)차예보최은정。이대우쌍태풍적이동과정화강도변화,각태참적예보정도수평불일。
In order to scientifically determine the typhoon parameters when forecasting the storm surge and waves during tropical typhoon events, the overall wind forecasting errors of 25 tropical typhoon events that occurred over the northwest Pacific region in 2012 were analyzed and compared, based on typhoon forecasting data from the National Meteorological Center ( NMC) of China, the Japan Meteorological Agency ( JMA) , the National Weather Service ( NWS) of the United States, the Hong Kong Observatory ( HKO) of China, and the Taiwan Meteorological Center ( TMC) of China. Meanwhile, the forecasting errors of two twin typhoon events in 2012 were evaluated. The results show that the HKO had the highest precision in forecasting the typhoon track: the average errors for 24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour typhoon track forecasts were 85. 8 km, 129. 8 km, and 209. 0 km, respectively;and the NMC had the best performance in forecasting the maximum speed of the typhoon with the smallest mean absolute errors: the mean absolute errors of 24-hour, 48-hour, and 72-hour maximum speed forecasts were 4. 5 m/s, 6. 0 m/s, and 6. 6 m/s, respectively. The results also show that the level of forecasting errors varied at different stations in terms of the forecast of the moving process and intensity variation of twin typhoons.