CAJ | 학술논문

当设备缺乏失效统计数据时，描述其可靠性的随机变量的概率信息是非完整的，传统可靠性评估无法处理非完整的概率信息。区间概率是处理非完整概率信息的有效方法，区间可靠性指标的宽度能体现概率信息的完整程度。根据专家经验，采用基于区间层析分析方法的区间概率计算模型来获得区间概率，建立包含区间概率的发输电系统非精确可靠性评估模型，提出高效的逐次优化算法求可靠性指标上下界，最后通过算例分析验证了所提方法的有效性。
당설비결핍실효통계수거시，묘술기가고성적수궤변량적개솔신식시비완정적，전통가고성평고무법처리비완정적개솔신식。구간개솔시처리비완정개솔신식적유효방법，구간가고성지표적관도능체현개솔신식적완정정도。근거전가경험，채용기우구간층석분석방법적구간개솔계산모형래획득구간개솔，건립포함구간개솔적발수전계통비정학가고성평고모형，제출고효적축차우화산법구가고성지표상하계，최후통과산례분석험증료소제방법적유효성。
The probabilistic information of random variables to describe the reliability of equipments is incomplete while the statistical data of equipment invalidation is devoid, and traditional reliability assessment cannot cope with incomplete probabilistic information. Interval probability is an effective approach to cope with incomplete probabilistic information, and the width of interval reliability indices can incarnate the completion degree of probabilistic information. Based on expert experiences, the interval probability is achieved by an interval probability calculation model based on interval analytical hierarchy process, and an imprecise reliability assessment model containing interval probability for composite power generation-transmission system is established, and an efficient successive optimization algorithm is proposed to solve the upper and lower bounds of reliability indices, finally the effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated by analysis on examples.