CAJ | 학술논문

人口、经济和环境问题日益受到关注，环境问题的产生及解决与人口和发展密不可分。本文在了解人口和经济发展以及环境变化现状的基础上，利用通径分析技术，对比分析了2000年和2008年人口与经济发展的环境效应变动情况。研究结果表明，经济发展的环境效应最大，其中，经济规模的环境总效应在增强，且明显大于经济结构的总效应，而结构总效应有所减弱。生产技术的环境总效应近十年来有所减弱，但环保技术对环境的总效应却在不断增大。人口发展虽然对环境质量带来一定的影响，但随着时间的推移人口发展的总效应有所减弱，家庭规模变动和城乡人口结构变动对环境的直接效应及间接效应仍须重视。基于此，转变经济方式，调整产业结构，促进环保技术发展才是真正减少环境污染的主要手段。此外，通过加快城市化促进我国城乡人口结构转变，积极发挥城市化对减少环境污染的正面积极效应，从家庭入手，改变家庭消费习惯将都有利于环境质量的改善。
인구、경제화배경문제일익수도관주，배경문제적산생급해결여인구화발전밀불가분。본문재료해인구화경제발전이급배경변화현상적기출상，이용통경분석기술，대비분석료2000년화2008년인구여경제발전적배경효응변동정황。연구결과표명，경제발전적배경효응최대，기중，경제규모적배경총효응재증강，차명현대우경제결구적총효응，이결구총효응유소감약。생산기술적배경총효응근십년래유소감약，단배보기술대배경적총효응각재불단증대。인구발전수연대배경질량대래일정적영향，단수착시간적추이인구발전적총효응유소감약，가정규모변동화성향인구결구변동대배경적직접효응급간접효응잉수중시。기우차，전변경제방식，조정산업결구，촉진배보기술발전재시진정감소배경오염적주요수단。차외，통과가쾌성시화촉진아국성향인구결구전변，적겁발휘성시화대감소배경오염적정면적겁효응，종가정입수，개변가정소비습관장도유리우배경질량적개선。
The problem about population,economy and environmental quality has been regarded broadly. But the raising and solving environmental pollution is close related with population and economic development. The paper makes a contrastive analysis about the environmental effect on population and economic development in 2000 and 2008 based on the present situ-ation of population economic and environmental development using path analysis technique. The result shows that the total en-vironmental effects of economic development are biggest,including increasing economic scale effect and diminishing structural effect. And the environmental effect of economic scale is greater than that of economic structure. The environmental effect of productive technique is diminishing in recent years;however,the effect of environmental protection technology is increasing. Although population development impact on the environmental quality,the total environmental effect of population development is weakened. The direct effect of family scale and urban-rural population structure and their indirect effect in the way affect economic development should be considered. Based on the above,the paper thinks that the best way to decreasing environ-mental pollution is to transform the mode of economic growth, to adjust the economic structure,and to promote the progress in environmental protection technology. In addition,accelerating urbanization to promote the urban and rural population structural transformation in favor for playing the positive effect of urbanization on the reduction of environmental pollution, changing the family consumptive habit would improve the environmental quality.