水利水电科技进展
水利水電科技進展
수이수전과기진전
ADVANCES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OF WATER RESOURCES
2013年
4期
14-17
,共4页
冰凌%可变模糊聚类循环迭代模型%流凌预报%黄河
冰凌%可變模糊聚類循環迭代模型%流凌預報%黃河
빙릉%가변모호취류순배질대모형%류릉예보%황하
ice%variable fuzzy clustering loop iteration model%ice-run forecast%Yellow River
为了模拟黄河内蒙古段冰情的发生、发展过程，以可变模糊集理论为基础，提出了可变模糊聚类循环迭代模型来预报黄河内蒙古段巴彦高勒站流凌日期。选定初始权重矩阵、初始模糊聚类矩阵、初始模糊聚类中心矩阵，应用迭代公式求得最优权重矩阵、最优模糊聚类矩阵、最优模糊聚类中心矩阵，建立符合相关性要求的回归方程，从而实现预报识别检验。将模型预报结果与实测值对比分析，预报结果合格率达到80%，属于甲等预报方案，表明基于物理成因分析和数学理论的可变模糊聚类循环迭代模型可用于黄河内蒙古段的流凌预报。
為瞭模擬黃河內矇古段冰情的髮生、髮展過程，以可變模糊集理論為基礎，提齣瞭可變模糊聚類循環迭代模型來預報黃河內矇古段巴彥高勒站流凌日期。選定初始權重矩陣、初始模糊聚類矩陣、初始模糊聚類中心矩陣，應用迭代公式求得最優權重矩陣、最優模糊聚類矩陣、最優模糊聚類中心矩陣，建立符閤相關性要求的迴歸方程，從而實現預報識彆檢驗。將模型預報結果與實測值對比分析，預報結果閤格率達到80%，屬于甲等預報方案，錶明基于物理成因分析和數學理論的可變模糊聚類循環迭代模型可用于黃河內矇古段的流凌預報。
위료모의황하내몽고단빙정적발생、발전과정，이가변모호집이론위기출，제출료가변모호취류순배질대모형래예보황하내몽고단파언고륵참류릉일기。선정초시권중구진、초시모호취류구진、초시모호취류중심구진，응용질대공식구득최우권중구진、최우모호취류구진、최우모호취류중심구진，건립부합상관성요구적회귀방정，종이실현예보식별검험。장모형예보결과여실측치대비분석，예보결과합격솔체도80%，속우갑등예보방안，표명기우물리성인분석화수학이론적가변모호취류순배질대모형가용우황하내몽고단적류릉예보。
In order to simulate the initiation and development of ice regimes in the Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow River, a variable fuzzy clustering loop iteration model is proposed to forecast the ice-run date at Bayangaole station in the Inner Mongolia Reach of Yellow River based on the variable fuzzy set theory. The matrices of the initial weight, the initial fuzzy clustering and the initial fuzzy clustering center are chosen, and their optimal matrices are obtained by means of the loop iteration formulae. Regression equations to satisfy the correlation are established to achieve forecast examination. The forecast results are compared with the measured values, and the acceptability is 80%. The forecast schemes belong to the first-class ones. It indicates that the proposed variable fuzzy clustering loop iteration model based on physical factors and mathematical theories can be employed to predicate the ice-run date in the Inner Mongolia reach of Yellow River.
