CAJ | 학술논문

提出了基于Shepard曲面、经验模态分解法(ensemble empirical mode decomposition，EEMD)、混沌理论和灰色理论的水电机组状态退化评估与趋势预测模型。该方法首先用 Shepard 曲面建立综合考虑有功功率、工作水头作用的水电机组状态退化趋势模型。然后将水电机组状态退化趋势进行EEMD分解，得到若干个相对平稳的固有模态函数(intrinsic mode function，IMF)分量和一个余项分量，对每个IMF分量进行特性识别，根据其不同属性，选用混沌预测模型或灰色模型预测，同时对余项分量进行灰色预测。最后将所有分量的预测结果进行重构，获得最终预测结果。实例分析表明，该方法能有效地评估水电机组状态的退化过程，且能提高退化趋势的预测精度。
제출료기우Shepard곡면、경험모태분해법(ensemble empirical mode decomposition，EEMD)、혼돈이론화회색이론적수전궤조상태퇴화평고여추세예측모형。해방법수선용 Shepard 곡면건립종합고필유공공솔、공작수두작용적수전궤조상태퇴화추세모형。연후장수전궤조상태퇴화추세진행EEMD분해，득도약간개상대평은적고유모태함수(intrinsic mode function，IMF)분량화일개여항분량，대매개IMF분량진행특성식별，근거기불동속성，선용혼돈예측모형혹회색모형예측，동시대여항분량진행회색예측。최후장소유분량적예측결과진행중구，획득최종예측결과。실례분석표명，해방법능유효지평고수전궤조상태적퇴화과정，차능제고퇴화추세적예측정도。
Based on Shepard surface, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), chaos theory and grey theory, a model to assess and predict condition degradation trend of hydropower unit is proposed. Firstly, utilizing Shepard surface a condition degradation trend model of hydropower unit, in which the actions of active power and working head are synthetically considered, is established;secondly the condition degradation trend of hydropower unit is decomposed by EEMD to obtain several relatively steady intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and a remainder term component, and then each IMF component is identified and according to their different attributes the chaotic prediction model or grey model are chosen to perform prediction, meanwhile the grey prediction of remainder term component is carried out;finally prediction results of all components are reconstructed to obtain final prediction result. Case study results show that using the proposed method the condition degradation process of hydropower unit can be effectively assessed and the prediction accuracy of degradation trend can be improved.