CAJ | 학술논문

鉴于水库群供水风险指标体系的复杂结构和层次特征，本文采用层次分析法确定不同用水户各风险指标的权重，以供水风险最小为目标函数，构建水库群供水优化调度模型，提出了探讨水库群供水能力与风险分析的一般框架。即主要由以下4部分构成：（1）来水、用水资料的随机模拟生成；（2）水库群供水风险综合评价指标的计算；（3）聚合水库调度图与共同供水任务分配过程的优化；（4）共同供水任务分配规则的拟定。通过调整主要用水户的需水额度，分析水库群供水量与供水风险之间的关系，确定允许风险范围内的水库群供水能力。以中国北方某并联供水水库群为例，对调度规则控制下水库群供水能力与相应风险进行了分析，验证了所提框架的可行性与合理性。
감우수고군공수풍험지표체계적복잡결구화층차특정，본문채용층차분석법학정불동용수호각풍험지표적권중，이공수풍험최소위목표함수，구건수고군공수우화조도모형，제출료탐토수고군공수능력여풍험분석적일반광가。즉주요유이하4부분구성：（1）래수、용수자료적수궤모의생성；（2）수고군공수풍험종합평개지표적계산；（3）취합수고조도도여공동공수임무분배과정적우화；（4）공동공수임무분배규칙적의정。통과조정주요용수호적수수액도，분석수고군공수량여공수풍험지간적관계，학정윤허풍험범위내적수고군공수능력。이중국북방모병련공수수고군위례，대조도규칙공제하수고군공수능력여상응풍험진행료분석，험증료소제광가적가행성여합이성。
In view of the complex structure and hierarchy characteristics of the risk assessment system for multi-reservoir water-supply system, this paper employs the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to deter?mine the weight of the water-supply risk indexes for each water users. After that, an optimization model for multi-reservoir operation is constructed with the objective function of minimizing the water-supply risk. In this study, a general framework is proposed for exploring the maximum water-supply yield of the multi-reservoir system and analyzing water-supply risk, which consists of four parts:(1)generation of in?flow and agriculture water use data by stochastic hydrological model;(2)calculation of the aggregated evalu?ation index for water-supply risk for multi-reservoir system;(3)optimization of the hedging rule curves for equivalent reservoir and allocation of common water demand among individual reservoirs;(4)determination of the allocation rule for common water users. The different amounts of water demand for domestic and in?dustrial uses are adopted as the input data of the operation model to analyze the relationship between the water supply amount and water supply risk. In this way,the maximum water-supply yield within the allow?able risk can be obtained. A multi-reservoir water-supply system in North China is taken as the case study to verify the reasonability and efficacy of the proposed framework.