CAJ | 학술논문

森林生态安全研究是城市生态学和可持续发展研究的重要方面。运用模糊综合评价法评价和预测了2011—2015年北京市森林生态安全状况，主要内容包括3个部分：1）通过压力—状态—响应的概念模型，构建森林生态安全预警指标体系。采用模糊综合评价方法，借助相对隶属度的概念和客观赋权的主成分分析，评价2001—2010年的北京市森林生态安全状态。结果表明北京市森林生态安全状态呈逐年转好趋势；2）利用指数平滑法预测2011—2015年的预警级别。结果表明预测时段内北京市森林生态安全状态继续转好，并将于2015年首次达到无警状态。3）根据各指标的权重排序，分析了压力层、状态层和响应层3个层次北京市森林生态安全的影响因子。
삼림생태안전연구시성시생태학화가지속발전연구적중요방면。운용모호종합평개법평개화예측료2011—2015년북경시삼림생태안전상황，주요내용포괄3개부분：1）통과압력—상태—향응적개념모형，구건삼림생태안전예경지표체계。채용모호종합평개방법，차조상대대속도적개념화객관부권적주성분분석，평개2001—2010년적북경시삼림생태안전상태。결과표명북경시삼림생태안전상태정축년전호추세；2）이용지수평활법예측2011—2015년적예경급별。결과표명예측시단내북경시삼림생태안전상태계속전호，병장우2015년수차체도무경상태。3）근거각지표적권중배서，분석료압력층、상태층화향응층3개층차북경시삼림생태안전적영향인자。
@@@@Evaluation of forest ecological security is one of the important aspects in the urban ecology and sustainability.The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to assess and forecast the eco-security of forests between 2011 and 2015 in Beijing.Based on the “pressure-state-response” conceptual model, a forest ecological security warning indicator system was built.The eco-security status of forests from 2001 to 2010 in Beijing was evaluated by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method with the concept of relative membership degree and the objective-weighting principal components analy-sis.The eco-security status was getting better gradually during this period.Theexponential smoothing method was used to forecast the alarm level from 2011 to 2015.The results showed that the eco-security status of Beijing forests would continue to get better, and there would be the “no warning” state in 2015 for the first time.According to the order of weighting fac-tors of different warning indicators, the main factors affecting the forest security were analyzed for pressure, status and re-sponse categories, respectively.