金融理论与实践
金融理論與實踐
금융이론여실천
FINANCIAL THEORY AND PRACTICE
2014年
4期
35-41
,共7页
潜在增长率%结构%经济增长
潛在增長率%結構%經濟增長
잠재증장솔%결구%경제증장
potential growth rate%structure%economic growth
中国经济经历了30多年的快速发展，劳动力成本明显提高，资本投资效率逐渐下降，在技术进步未显著改善的情况下，传统的依靠低成本、高投入的粗放型发展模式正受到越来越多的挑战，未来中国潜在增长率下行压力增大。然而，随着中国由低收入国家向中等收入国家迈进，经济社会结构已步入深度转型期，经济增长的动力结构、产业结构、区域结构、城市化进程等结构性因素正经历着内生变化，结构性因素对未来中国潜在增长率走势将产生重要影响。
中國經濟經歷瞭30多年的快速髮展，勞動力成本明顯提高，資本投資效率逐漸下降，在技術進步未顯著改善的情況下，傳統的依靠低成本、高投入的粗放型髮展模式正受到越來越多的挑戰，未來中國潛在增長率下行壓力增大。然而，隨著中國由低收入國傢嚮中等收入國傢邁進，經濟社會結構已步入深度轉型期，經濟增長的動力結構、產業結構、區域結構、城市化進程等結構性因素正經歷著內生變化，結構性因素對未來中國潛在增長率走勢將產生重要影響。
중국경제경력료30다년적쾌속발전，노동력성본명현제고，자본투자효솔축점하강，재기술진보미현저개선적정황하，전통적의고저성본、고투입적조방형발전모식정수도월래월다적도전，미래중국잠재증장솔하행압력증대。연이，수착중국유저수입국가향중등수입국가매진，경제사회결구이보입심도전형기，경제증장적동력결구、산업결구、구역결구、성시화진정등결구성인소정경력착내생변화，결구성인소대미래중국잠재증장솔주세장산생중요영향。
After the more than 30 years rapid development of China’s economic, the China’s labor cost improved significantly and capital investment efficiency gradually decline. On the condition of Techno-logical progress has not improved significantly, the traditional extensive development pattern which was low cost and high investment had faced the more and more challenges, and the potential growth rate got a downward pressure in future China. However, as the follows that the China was towards from the low-income countries to middle-income countries, the economic society structure had been to the tran-sition in depth degree. The structural factors as power structure, industrial structure, regional structure and urbanization process were going through the endogenous changes. The structural factors will affect the future potential growth rate trend significantly in China.
