CAJ | 학술논문

以机动车单双号限行政策为切入点，尝试对环境政策微观效应量化作出讨论。通过B-样条逼近数据离散值，形成空气质量日变动曲线作为模型分析的“数据”，并以此为基础，构建一种政策效应逐点测算的函数型虚拟变量回归模型。以2013年冬季以来兰州市机动车单双号限行前、中、后三个时期二氧化氮（NO2）小时数据为例，测算机动车单双号限行政策逐点微观效果。研究表明，在样本期内，限行政策在统计意义下显著有效，且效应在一天内表现出与人类作息规律一致的“U”型轨迹。
이궤동차단쌍호한행정책위절입점，상시대배경정책미관효응양화작출토론。통과B-양조핍근수거리산치，형성공기질량일변동곡선작위모형분석적“수거”，병이차위기출，구건일충정책효응축점측산적함수형허의변량회귀모형。이2013년동계이래란주시궤동차단쌍호한행전、중、후삼개시기이양화담（NO2）소시수거위례，측산궤동차단쌍호한행정책축점미관효과。연구표명，재양본기내，한행정책재통계의의하현저유효，차효응재일천내표현출여인류작식규률일치적“U”형궤적。
T his paper attempts to quantify the effect of environmental policy in micro -level scales , w hich illustrated by the effects measurement of odd -even traffic restriction scheme .In this paper ,the hourly observed air pollutant data was transformed into curves via B - spline basis , and a functional dummy variable regression model that treat the curves approximated above as raw data was proposed in this paper ,w hich is been used to estimate the effect of environmental policies in a micro -level time scales . As an application ,nitrogen dioxide (NO2) data which pre ,during and after odd -even traffic restriction period of Lanzhou city in winter 2013 was used in order to estimate the effect of traffic restriction policy . Our results showed that ,in the sample period ,the odd-even traffic restriction policy in Lanzhou city was valid significantly ,and a further indication that our estimate shows "U" shaped trajectory ,which is accordance to human daily behaves .