CAJ | 학술논문

　　改革开放三十余年以来，上海市经济得到高速发展，大量人口涌入，然而同时上海市的城乡收入差距仍呈现进一步扩大的趋势。基于上海市1978-2010年统计数据，通过对人口聚集和城乡收入差距建立量化指标，进行协整分析建立误差修正模型，并通过格兰杰因果检验，探究两者之间的内在作用机制。结果表明，上海市人口聚集与城乡收入差距之间存在长期的均衡关系，城乡收入差距随着城市人口聚集程度升高而扩大，且两者存在双向的格兰杰因果关系。应将合理确定人口分布密度、引导人口有序集中作为抑制城乡收入差距扩大的应有之策，在关注人口总量控制的同时更应关注人口的流动。
　　개혁개방삼십여년이래，상해시경제득도고속발전，대량인구용입，연이동시상해시적성향수입차거잉정현진일보확대적추세。기우상해시1978-2010년통계수거，통과대인구취집화성향수입차거건립양화지표，진행협정분석건립오차수정모형，병통과격란걸인과검험，탐구량자지간적내재작용궤제。결과표명，상해시인구취집여성향수입차거지간존재장기적균형관계，성향수입차거수착성시인구취집정도승고이확대，차량자존재쌍향적격란걸인과관계。응장합리학정인구분포밀도、인도인구유서집중작위억제성향수입차거확대적응유지책，재관주인구총량공제적동시경응관주인구적류동。
More than 30 years after the reform and opening-up in China, the economy of Shanghai has gotten fast development together with the influx of immigrants. Meanwhile, Shanghai urban-rural income gap is still showing a contin-ued upward trend. Based on the statistical data of Shanghai, the paper establishes quantitative indicators of population concentration and urban-rural income gap, and explores the internal operating mechanism using error correction model, co-integration analysis and Granger causality test. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between Shanghai population concentration and urban-rural income gap. The income gap expands due to the increasing degree of aggregation of the urban population and there is a two-way Granger causality between them. In order to control efficiently urban-rural income gap, we should pay great attention to rational population distribution density and their mobility.